Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:58:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
1C 0x1c70…b25e sports 1070 markets active 2h ago coverage 64d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 64d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$12,306 (-7%) realized −$12,374 · open +$68
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate68%724W / 345L
Whale WR69%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$161per market
Trades / day46.4pace
Fees−$1,847est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$568now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$369
7 days−$380
14 days−$1,642
30 days−$9,389
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 90% −$8,822
other 10% +$1,236
finance 0% +$54
world 0% −$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-12.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 87 -4.6% -13.7% 75% 37% -12.8%
≤30d 457 -5.4% -14.4% 73% 46% -19.4%
≤90d 1069 -3.2% -12.4% 68% 51% -13.6%
all 1069 -3.2% -12.4% 68% 51% -13.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover46.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.4% 51% -13.6%
10% ← realistic here -20.8% 33% -21.9%
15% -28.5% 21% -29.4%
20% -35.5% 12% -36.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 69% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$43 vs −$112 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

64d coverage
Net worth$568
Realized−$12,374
Unrealized+$68
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses724 / 345
Whale WR (big bets)69%
Est. fees paid−$1,847
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1069 / 1070
History coverage64d ⚠
Avg bet$161
Trades / day46.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1069 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? No 88¢ 100¢ $500 $568 +$68 (+14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 110 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $20 +$13 +62%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $101 +$14 +14%
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Taylah Preston Jun 18 $20 +$4 +18%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Yannick Hanfmann Jun 18 $200 +$12 +6%
Royan: Max Alcala Gurri vs Carlos Sanchez Jover Jun 18 $302 +$25 +8%
Figueira Da Foz: Darja Vidmanova vs Elena Micic Jun 18 $140 +$6 +4%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Ethan Quinn Jun 18 $55 $0 +1%
Dublin: Titouan Droguet vs Stefanos Sakellaridis Jun 18 $40 +$7 +17%
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Botic van de Zandschulp Jun 18 $30 +$3 +11%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $301 +$8 +3%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 17 $10 +$5 +50%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 17 $400 +$8 +2%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 17 $90 +$4 +4%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $652 +$65 +10%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 12.5 Jun 17 $20 +$1 +6%
Asuncion 2: Eduardo Ribeiro vs Juan Manuel La Serna Jun 17 $20 +$1 +3%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $601 +$33 +6%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $757 +$91 +12%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $50 −$2 -3%
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $100 −$29 -29%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $689 +$99 +14%
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 16 $1 $0 +14%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Vit Kopriva Jun 16 $60 +$5 +8%
Nottingham Open: Caty McNally vs Antonia Ruzic Jun 16 $17 +$7 +40%
Brescia: Danka Kovinic vs Miriam Bulgaru Jun 16 $60 +$4 +7%
Royan: Philip Henning vs Gerard Campana Lee Jun 16 $101 −$100 -99%
Figueira Da Foz: Anastasia Kulikova vs Mai Hontama Jun 16 $60 −$60 -99%
Dublin: Jurij Rodionov vs Quinn Vandecasteele Jun 16 $35 +$4 +11%
Parma: Petr Bar Biryukov vs Stefano Travaglia Jun 16 $87 +$4 +4%
Parma: Jesper de Jong vs Laslo Djere Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Nottingham 2: Mackenzie McDonald vs Shintaro Mochizuki Jun 16 $50 +$2 +3%
Parma: Miguel Damas vs Roberto Carballes Baena Jun 16 $30 +$3 +8%
Nottingham 2: Felix Gill vs Hugo Gaston Jun 16 $30 +$10 +35%
Halle Open: Andrey Rublev vs Hubert Hurkacz Jun 16 $50 +$3 +5%
Nottingham 2: Dane Sweeny vs Jacob Fearnley Jun 16 $50 +$3 +5%
Dublin: Elias Ymer vs Henry Searle Jun 16 $30 +$7 +22%
Poznan: Maks Kasnikowski vs Lorenzo Giustino Jun 16 $66 −$30 -46%
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Marcos Giron Jun 16 $71 +$2 +3%
Dublin: Bernard Tomic vs Conor Gannon Jun 16 $20 −$20 -99%
Dublin: Benjamin Willwerth vs Yi Zhou Jun 16 $108 −$18 -16%
Royan: Daniel Jade vs Michael Zhu Jun 16 $80 +$4 +5%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings Jun 16 $110 −$110 -100%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Golden State Valkyries Jun 16 $50 +$24 +48%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $101 +$22 +22%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $50 +$12 +23%
Asuncion 2: Carlos Maria Zarate vs Juan Sebastian Gomez Jun 15 $47 −$40 -84%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $276 −$272 -99%
Will Mauricio Ruffy win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $45 +$19 +41%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 15 $101 +$20 +20%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $75 +$16 +22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 89¢ $201 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 88¢ $100 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 87¢ $201 1h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 61¢ $20 4h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? SELL No 92¢ $115 4h
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Taylah Preston SELL Ann Li 66¢ $24 4h
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Taylah Preston BUY Ann Li 48¢ $10 5h
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Taylah Preston BUY Ann Li 64¢ $10 5h
Royan: Max Alcala Gurri vs Carlos Sanchez Jover SELL Max Alcala Gurri 86¢ $327 5h
Royan: Max Alcala Gurri vs Carlos Sanchez Jover BUY Max Alcala Gurri 69¢ $50 6h
Royan: Max Alcala Gurri vs Carlos Sanchez Jover BUY Max Alcala Gurri 69¢ $101 6h
Royan: Max Alcala Gurri vs Carlos Sanchez Jover BUY Max Alcala Gurri 82¢ $20 6h
Royan: Max Alcala Gurri vs Carlos Sanchez Jover BUY Max Alcala Gurri 90¢ $30 6h
Royan: Max Alcala Gurri vs Carlos Sanchez Jover BUY Max Alcala Gurri 94¢ $100 6h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Yannick Hanfmann BUY Alexander Zverev 94¢ $200 6h
Figueira Da Foz: Darja Vidmanova vs Elena Micic BUY Darja Vidmanova 93¢ $20 6h
Figueira Da Foz: Darja Vidmanova vs Elena Micic BUY Darja Vidmanova 95¢ $20 6h
Figueira Da Foz: Darja Vidmanova vs Elena Micic BUY Darja Vidmanova 97¢ $100 6h
Dublin: Titouan Droguet vs Stefanos Sakellaridis SELL Titouan Droguet 98¢ $47 7h
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Botic van de Zandschulp SELL Tommy Paul 88¢ $34 7h
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Botic van de Zandschulp BUY Tommy Paul 75¢ $10 7h
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Botic van de Zandschulp BUY Tommy Paul 80¢ $20 7h
Dublin: Titouan Droguet vs Stefanos Sakellaridis BUY Titouan Droguet 81¢ $10 7h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 80¢ $101 8h
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Ethan Quinn BUY Ben Shelton 79¢ $5 8h
Dublin: Titouan Droguet vs Stefanos Sakellaridis BUY Titouan Droguet 84¢ $30 8h
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Ethan Quinn BUY Ben Shelton 72¢ $20 8h
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Ethan Quinn BUY Ethan Quinn 25¢ $10 8h
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Ethan Quinn BUY Ben Shelton 92¢ $20 8h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 93¢ $100 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $567.96 · official $567.96 (match) · 3500 history records