Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T20:36:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
1C 0x1c71…e21d sports 15 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$156 (+15%) realized +$156 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate47%7W / 8L
Drawdown55%max
Avg bet$69per market
Trades / day45.0pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% +$24
sports 48% +$136
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-22.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -14.1% -22.3% 47% 33% +4.5%
≤30d 15 -14.1% -22.3% 47% 33% +4.5%
≤90d 15 -14.1% -22.3% 47% 33% +4.5%
all 15 -14.1% -22.3% 47% 33% +4.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover45.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -22.3% 33% +4.5%
10% ← realistic here -29.7% 20% -5.5%
15% -36.5% 20% -14.6%
20% -42.7% 20% -23.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 74% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt +16% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -85% → late +48% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$39 vs −$15 · ×2.71 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.37 per $1 lost it wins $2.37
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$156
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses7 / 8
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)15 / 15
History coverage1d
Avg bet$69
Trades / day45.0
Drawdown55%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 15 Trades
no open positions (7 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $540 +$24 +4%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: McCartney Kessler vs Daria Kasatkina Jun 22 $110 +$13 +12%
Bad Homburg Open: Alexandra Eala vs Elise Mertens Jun 22 $26 −$26 -100%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Mackenzie McDonald vs Felipe Meligeni Al Jun 22 $20 −$1 -7%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Dane Sweeny vs Franco Roncadelli Jun 22 $5 $0 +2%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Elisabetta Cocciaretto Jun 22 $45 +$5 +11%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Jerome Kym vs Gonzalo Bueno Jun 22 $35 +$30 +84%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Federico Coria vs Oliver Bonding Jun 22 $31 +$89 +291%
Mallorca Championships: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Martin Landaluce Jun 22 $126 +$115 +91%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Liam Broady vs August Holmgren Jun 22 $10 −$10 -99%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Raphael Collignon vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo Jun 22 $10 −$10 -97%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Jay Clarke vs Andrea Pellegrino Jun 22 $29 −$29 -99%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Elias Ymer Jun 22 $20 −$20 -98%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Guy Den Ouden vs Yi Zhou Jun 22 $5 −$5 -97%
Plovdiv: Yanaki Milev vs Ognjen Milic Jun 22 $15 −$15 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $204 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 86¢ $90 1h
Bad Homburg Open: Alexandra Eala vs Elise Mertens BUY Alexandra Eala 24¢ $7 1h
Bad Homburg Open: Alexandra Eala vs Elise Mertens BUY Alexandra Eala 24¢ $19 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 82¢ $82 2h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Mackenzie McDonald vs Felipe Meligeni Al SELL Mackenzie McDonald 78¢ $19 2h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 81¢ $360 2h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 82¢ $91 2h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 82¢ $91 2h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 82¢ $82 2h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 83¢ $83 2h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: McCartney Kessler vs Daria Kasatkina SELL McCartney Kessler 100¢ $123 2h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: McCartney Kessler vs Daria Kasatkina BUY McCartney Kessler 95¢ $40 2h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: McCartney Kessler vs Daria Kasatkina BUY McCartney Kessler 93¢ $10 2h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 82¢ $10 2h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Mackenzie McDonald vs Felipe Meligeni Al BUY Mackenzie McDonald 78¢ $10 2h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: McCartney Kessler vs Daria Kasatkina BUY McCartney Kessler 85¢ $10 2h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: McCartney Kessler vs Daria Kasatkina BUY McCartney Kessler 85¢ $50 2h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Mackenzie McDonald vs Felipe Meligeni Al BUY Mackenzie McDonald 88¢ $10 2h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Liam Broady vs August Holmgren BUY Liam Broady 54¢ $10 4h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Raphael Collignon vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo BUY Raphael Collignon $10 4h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Jay Clarke vs Andrea Pellegrino BUY Jay Clarke 65¢ $29 5h
Mallorca Championships: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Martin Landaluce BUY Jan-Lennard Struff 53¢ $101 5h
Mallorca Championships: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Martin Landaluce BUY Jan-Lennard Struff 47¢ $25 5h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Federico Coria vs Oliver Bonding BUY Federico Coria 37¢ $10 5h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Elias Ymer BUY Nikoloz Basilashvili $10 5h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Elias Ymer BUY Nikoloz Basilashvili 34¢ $10 5h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Elisabetta Cocciaretto BUY Ajla Tomljanovic 94¢ $10 5h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Elisabetta Cocciaretto BUY Ajla Tomljanovic 89¢ $30 5h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Guy Den Ouden vs Yi Zhou BUY Guy Den Ouden $5 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 51 history records