Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T01:29:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1C 0x1c72…fd49 sports 53 markets active 2h ago coverage 585d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$7,575 (+20%) realized +$7,875 · open −$300
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%19W / 28L
Whale WR40%big bets
Drawdown54%max
Avg bet$724per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$4,051now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$268
7 days+$93
14 days+$143
30 days+$143
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 76% +$12,082
sports 14% −$793
politics 10% −$3,669
crypto 0% −$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-14.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -4.5% -13.6% 44% 44% +9.8%
≤30d 18 -8.4% -17.2% 44% 44% -2.0%
≤90d 24 +0.9% -8.7% 46% 46% -8.8%
all 47 -5.3% -14.3% 40% 40% +13.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.3% 40% +13.3%
10% -22.5% 40% +2.5%
15% -30.0% 40% -7.4%
20% -36.9% 34% -16.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 81% · top 2 89% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +25% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 40% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -12% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$810 vs −$268 · ×3.03 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.05 per $1 lost it wins $2.05
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

585d coverage
Net worth$4,051
Realized+$7,875
Unrealized−$300
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses19 / 28
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions6
Markets (closed)47 / 53
History coverage585d
Avg bet$724
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown54%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 47 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $3,100 $2,935 −$165 (-5%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $1,001 $867 −$134 (-13%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Yes 66¢ 64¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Yes 50¢ 52¢ $50 $52 +$2 (+3%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Yes 51¢ 52¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Spain 40¢ 40¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 20 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $101 +$49 +49%
Panama vs. Croatia: Panama O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $25 +$20 +79%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $20 +$32 +158%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $102 +$176 +172%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $26 −$25 -98%
Panama to score first vs. Ghana? Jun 17 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $50 +$20 +40%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $25 −$25 -98%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $51 +$31 +62%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $101 +$42 +42%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $101 +$53 +52%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $25 −$25 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $25 −$25 -99%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $205 −$12 -6%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $696 −$9 -1%
Lakers vs. Rockets Apr 26 $48 −$47 -98%
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Apr 26 $96 −$94 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Israel Adesanya vs. Joe Pyfer (Middleweight, Main Car Mar 29 $10 +$12 +122%
UFC Fight Night: Ignacio Bahamondes vs. Tofiq Musayev (Lightweight, Pr Mar 29 $5 +$14 +270%
UFC Fight Night: Marcin Tybura vs. Tyrell Fortune (Heavyweight, Prelim Mar 29 $10 +$8 +82%
UFC Fight Night: Alexa Grasso vs. Maycee Barber (Women's Flyweight, Ma Mar 29 $20 −$20 -100%
Fight to Go the Distance? Mar 11 $30 +$72 +239%
UFC 326: Michael Johnson vs. Drew Dober (Lightweight, Main Card) Mar 11 $1,400 +$1,127 +80%
UFC 326: Reinier de Ridder vs. Caio Borralho (Middleweight, Main Card) Mar 08 $20 −$20 -100%
UFC 326: Gregory Rodrigues vs. Brunno Ferreira (Middleweight, Main Car Mar 08 $35 −$35 -100%
HumidiFi FDV above $200M one day after launch? Jan 25 $30 −$30 -100%
UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett (Lightweight, Main Card) Jan 25 $300 +$638 +212%
UFC 324: Fugitt vs. Miller (Welterweight, Early Prelims) Jan 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Over $60M committed to the Ranger public sale? Jan 13 $240 +$160 +67%
Over $80M committed to the Ranger public sale? Jan 13 $164 +$236 +144%
Over $100M committed to the Ranger public sale? Jan 06 $91 −$91 -100%
Will Jake Paul vs. Anthony Joshua have no official winner? Dec 20 $104 −$81 -78%
Will Trump sign the Epstein Disclosure Bill on November 20? Nov 20 $136 −$134 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from November 11 to November 18, 20 Nov 16 $30 −$30 -100%
Over $20M committed to the Paystream raise on MetaDAO? Oct 26 $547 −$341 -62%
Dern vs. Jandiroba Oct 25 $20 −$20 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Rębecki vs. Duncan Aug 03 $50 +$111 +223%
UFC Fight Night: Magny vs. dos Santos Aug 03 $50 +$75 +150%
UFC Fight Night: Park vs. Taira Aug 03 $80 −$55 -69%
Will the AfD win between 22% and 24% of the vote in the German electio Jul 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the AfD win 25-30% of the vote in the German election? Jul 05 $3,534 −$3,534 -100%
Will Elon Musk buy MSNBC? Jan 01 $200 −$125 -62%
Will Jake Paul vs. Mike Tyson have no official winner? Nov 17 $2,558 −$2,558 -100%
Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Mike Tyson? Nov 16 $19,961 +$12,518 +63%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Panama vs. Croatia: Panama O/U 0.5 BUY Under 55¢ $25 1h
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 67¢ $50 1h
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 38¢ $20 1h
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 66¢ $51 1h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1,415 8h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 36¢ $102 25h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 50¢ $51 46h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 51¢ $51 46h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 40¢ $51 46h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 66¢ $101 46h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 35¢ $10 47h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 20¢ $26 3d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $71 4d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $44 4d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $32 4d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 5d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 5d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $16 5d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $32 5d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 5d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 5d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 5d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 5d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 5d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $405 5d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $58 5d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1,582 5d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1,709 5d
Panama to score first vs. Ghana? BUY Yes 41¢ $31 6d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 30¢ $20 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,050.95 · official $4,050.95 (match) · 292 history records