Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T02:18:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
1C 0x1c72…f0a0 sports 39 markets active 0h ago coverage 13d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialistFresh edge
Total PnL +$69 (+44%) realized +$69 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +39% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +21% what you keep after slip
Net edge+21%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate35%12W / 22L
Drawdown28%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day4.2pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$11now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$26
7 days+$36
14 days+$61
30 days+$61
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 86% +$47
other 14% +$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)+25.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 +30.7% +18.2% 31% 31% +15.4%
≤30d 34 +39.1% +25.9% 35% 35% +28.8%
≤90d 34 +39.1% +25.9% 35% 35% +28.8%
all 34 +39.1% +25.9% 35% 35% +28.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +25.9% 35% +28.8%
10% +13.8% 35% +16.4%
15% +2.8% 35% +5.2%
20% -7.3% 35% -5.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +42% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +39% · $-wt +42% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +82% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$3 · ×3.76 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.05 per $1 lost it wins $2.05
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$11
Realized+$69
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses12 / 22
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions5
Markets (closed)34 / 39
History coverage13d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day4.2
Drawdown28%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Yes 22¢ 20¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-7%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-0%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 16 $5 −$4 -75%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -77%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $2 +$11 +550%
Washington Mystics vs. New York Liberty Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $2 +$6 +246%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 +$9 +437%
Knicks vs. Spurs: 1H Moneyline Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $28 +$16 +56%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $3 +$19 +642%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $7 +$7 +105%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -92%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $2 −$1 -24%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 11 $3 −$3 -97%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $2 +$6 +223%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Seattle Storm Jun 11 $3 −$3 -97%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 11 $4 −$4 -97%
Spurs vs. Knicks: 1H Moneyline Jun 11 $3 −$3 -97%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 10 $5 −$4 -79%
Atlanta Dream vs. Chicago Sky Jun 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 10 $4 +$6 +170%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 10 $2 +$4 +203%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 10 $2 $0 -24%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 10 $2 $0 -7%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 10 $5 −$3 -65%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 10 $2 −$1 -47%
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5) Jun 10 $3 −$3 -97%
Dallas Wings vs. Minnesota Lynx Jun 09 $4 −$4 -97%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 09 $8 +$11 +137%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $8 −$8 -97%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $5 +$10 +186%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $10 +$16 +163%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 22¢ $3 26m
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros SELL Houston Astros 10¢ $1 1h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Houston Astros 37¢ $5 1h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes $0 2h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 4h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2 4h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2 7h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2 7h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $13 8h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 9h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 25h
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Derrick Lewis 21¢ $2 28h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 37h
Washington Mystics vs. New York Liberty BUY Washington Mystics 15¢ $1 37h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $2 37h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 2d
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $2 2d
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $3 2d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $3 2d
Knicks vs. Spurs: 1H Moneyline BUY Knicks 38¢ $4 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $14 2d
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes $0 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $7 3d
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $3 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $7 3d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? SELL Yes 26¢ $2 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 35¢ $7 4d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $2 4d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $8 4d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 35¢ $9 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.55 · official $10.55 (match) · 75 history records