Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T04:32:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1C
0x1c73…f364
sports · 41 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$46 -20%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$39 · open −$5
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$46
Realized−$39
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses17 / 16
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions8
Markets (closed)33 / 41
History coverage115d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%
Chart Positions 8 History 33 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$8
14 days−$12
30 days−$38
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot? Yes 93¢ 64¢ $15 $10 −$5 (-31%)
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets New York Mets 93¢ 100¢ $5 $6 +$0 (+8%)
Will Karl-Anthony Towns win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? No 88¢ 96¢ $5 $6 +$0 (+9%)
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? No 89¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$1 (+12%)
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? No 86¢ 84¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-3%)
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 82¢ 81¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Will Mike Mazzei win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary election? Yes 87¢ 79¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-9%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 82¢ 84¢ $3 $4 +$0 (+3%)
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card) Ilia Topuria 81¢ 80¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? No 90¢ 90¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic Nuno Borges 84¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 13 $5 $0 +8%
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Libema Open: Marin Cilic vs Denis Shapovalov Jun 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 10 $5 $0 +4%
Washington Nationals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 08 $6 +$1 +8%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $4 +$1 +23%
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 07 $5 +$1 +21%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev Jun 05 $6 $0 +3%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 01 $5 +$1 +12%
Will Alex Caruso win the 2026 Western Conference Finals MVP? Jun 01 $6 $0 +8%
Roland Garros WTA: Diane Parry vs Amanda Anisimova May 31 $6 −$6 -100%
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5) May 31 $1 $0 +23%
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic May 29 $4 −$4 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Katie Boulter vs Anastasia Potapova May 29 $4 +$1 +23%
Roland Garros ATP: Alexander Bublik vs Jan-Lennard Struff May 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Alexei Popyrin vs Zachary Svajda May 27 $6 −$6 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Athletics May 27 $13 +$1 +10%
Roland Garros ATP: Pablo Carreno Busta vs Jiri Lehecka May 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles May 26 $12 −$12 -100%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Milwaukee Brewers May 25 $10 +$1 +6%
Roland Garros ATP: Eliot Spizzirri vs Frances Tiafoe May 25 $2 $0 +10%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 11 $5 $0 -0%
Will Getafe CF win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $1 +$1 +60%
Will Real Oviedo win on 2026-05-10? May 06 $1 $0 -5%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? May 06 $1 $0 +2%
BitBoy convicted? Mar 21 $3 $0 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 9PM ET Mar 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? Mar 04 $1 $0 +0%
GTA VI released before June 2026? Mar 01 $1 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast's million-dollar puzzle be solved by March 15? Mar 01 $4 $0 +0%
Crude Oil (CL) Up or Down on March 2? Mar 01 $5 $0 -1%
Will Player 167 win Beast Games: Season 2? Mar 01 $5 $0 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 52% −$39
other 39% −$3
world 5% $0
finance 2% $0
politics 2% $0
crypto 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets BUY New York Mets 93¢ $5 1h
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic BUY Nuno Borges 84¢ $3 37h
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 82¢ $4 43h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 81¢ $3 2d
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Detroit Tigers 96¢ $5 3d
Will Karl-Anthony Towns win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? BUY No 88¢ $5 3d
Libema Open: Marin Cilic vs Denis Shapovalov BUY Denis Shapovalov 63¢ $3 4d
Washington Nationals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 92¢ $6 5d
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev BUY Alexander Zverev 81¢ $4 5d
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs BUY San Francisco Giants 45¢ $5 6d
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva BUY Mirra Andreeva 82¢ $5 6d
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev BUY Alexander Zverev 97¢ $6 7d
Will Mike Mazzei win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary ele BUY Yes 87¢ $4 10d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? BUY No 89¢ $5 11d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $4 12d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $3 12d
Will Alex Caruso win the 2026 Western Conference Finals MVP? BUY No 92¢ $6 13d
Roland Garros WTA: Diane Parry vs Amanda Anisimova BUY Amanda Anisimova 1¢ $6 13d
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic BUY Novak Djokovic 80¢ $4 14d
Roland Garros WTA: Katie Boulter vs Anastasia Potapova BUY Anastasia Potapova 81¢ $4 15d
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot? SELL Yes 88¢ $14 15d
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot? SELL Yes 88¢ $28 15d
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot? BUY Yes 91¢ $5 15d
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot? BUY Yes 91¢ $5 16d
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot? BUY Yes 93¢ $5 16d
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot? BUY Yes 93¢ $5 16d
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot? BUY Yes 93¢ $6 17d
Seattle Mariners vs. Athletics BUY Seattle Mariners 92¢ $6 17d
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot? BUY Yes 93¢ $6 17d
Seattle Mariners vs. Athletics BUY Seattle Mariners 90¢ $7 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-31.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -29.5% -36.2% 62% 25% -29.2%
≤30d 22 -33.7% -40.0% 59% 23% -38.5%
≤90d 28 -28.6% -35.4% 54% 21% -36.4%
all 33 -24.0% -31.3% 52% 18% -33.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -31.3% 18% -33.5%
10% -37.8% 12% -39.8%
15% -43.8% 3% -45.6%
20% -49.3% 3% -51.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $45.70 · official $45.70 (match) · 92 history records