Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T02:40:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1C 0x1c75…90f6 crypto 931 markets active 0h ago coverage 37d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 36d only
✗ bot/MM pace (77 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$868 (-5%) realized −$853 · open −$15
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate46%455W / 542L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day77.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$46now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$623
7 days−$623
14 days−$623
30 days−$833
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$593
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (77 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-16.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 259 -27.5% -34.4% 34% 27% -20.4%
≤30d 458 -11.8% -20.2% 42% 34% -16.8%
≤90d 997 -7.4% -16.2% 46% 38% -15.3%
all 997 -7.4% -16.2% 46% 38% -15.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover77.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.2% 38% -15.3%
10% ← realistic here -24.3% 31% -23.4%
15% -31.6% 23% -30.8%
20% -38.3% 17% -37.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$9 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

37d coverage
Net worth$46
Realized−$853
Unrealized−$15
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses455 / 542
Open positions1
Markets (closed)997 / 931
History coverage37d ⚠
Avg bet$20
Trades / day77.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 997 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Up 71¢ 54¢ $62 $46 −$15 (-25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 335 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 28 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 28 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 28 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 28 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 28 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 28 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 28 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 28 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 28 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 28 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 28 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 28 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 28 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 28 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 28 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 28 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 28 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 28 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 28 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 28 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 28 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 28 $45 −$45 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 28 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 28 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 28 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 28 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 28 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $25 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $4 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $3 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $2 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $5 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $25 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET SELL Up 62¢ $1 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET SELL Up 62¢ $1 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET SELL Up 62¢ $16 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET SELL Up 64¢ $1 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET SELL Up 64¢ $0 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET SELL Up 64¢ $11 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET SELL Up 64¢ $15 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET SELL Up 66¢ $14 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $15 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $54 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $16 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $27 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $51 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $19 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $21 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $24 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $31 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $1 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $4 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $24 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $4 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $3 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $3 31m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $46.26 · official $49.71 · 3500 history records