Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:22:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
1C 0x1c7d…b468 sports 170 markets active 19h ago coverage 397d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$65 (-5%) realized −$63 · open −$2
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate57%97W / 72L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$10
7 days+$9
14 days+$14
30 days+$14
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 70% −$43
other 21% +$7
politics 5% −$19
crypto 2% +$5
world 1% −$10
economics 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-14.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +44.6% +30.8% 83% 83% +17.0%
≤30d 7 +41.2% +27.8% 86% 86% +14.2%
≤90d 7 +41.2% +27.8% 86% 86% +14.2%
all 169 -5.7% -14.6% 57% 53% -14.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.6% 53% -14.1%
10% -22.8% 45% -22.3%
15% -30.3% 35% -29.8%
20% -37.1% 23% -36.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +26% too few recent
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$5 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

397d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized−$63
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses97 / 72
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)169 / 170
History coverage397d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 169 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $12 $10 −$2 (-18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10 +$4 +36%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $2 +$4 +197%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $5 +$2 +46%
Halle Open: Joao Fonseca vs Yannick Hanfmann Jun 14 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 +$2 +44%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 +$2 +45%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $20 +$4 +21%
Appalachian State vs. Southern Mississippi Dec 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Aryna Sabalenka win the 2025 US Open? Dec 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Vanderbilt vs. Virginia Tech Dec 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Ravens vs. Bills Dec 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Amanda Anisimova win the 2025 US Open? Dec 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Twins vs. Dodgers Dec 05 $2 −$2 -100%
US Open: Felix Auger Aliassime vs Alex de Minaur Dec 05 $2 −$2 -100%
Boxing: Will Canelo Álvarez win by Points or Decision? Dec 05 $2 −$2 -100%
US Open: Novak Djokovic vs Taylor Fritz Dec 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Dodgers vs. Pirates Dec 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Miami vs. Florida State Dec 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Arthur Rinderknech win the 2025 ATP Shanghai Masters Men’s Single Dec 05 $1 −$1 -100%
European Open: Zizou Bergs vs Raphael Collignon Dec 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Almaty Open: Laslo Djere vs Alexander Shevchenko Dec 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Paraguay win on 2025-09-04? Dec 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Ningbo Open, Qualification: McCartney Kessler vs Tamara Korpatsch Oct 14 $1 $0 -11%
Will Daniil Medvedev win the 2025 ATP Shanghai Masters Men’s Singles T Oct 11 $2 $0 +25%
Ankalaev vs. Pereira Oct 05 $1 +$2 +212%
Georgia vs. Tennessee Sep 14 $1 +$1 +59%
Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2025 US Open? Sep 07 $1 +$1 +120%
North Texas vs. Western Michigan Sep 07 $1 $0 +27%
North Carolina vs. Charlotte Sep 07 $1 $0 +16%
Boston College vs. Michigan State Sep 07 $1 +$1 +61%
Will Jannik Sinner win the 2025 US Open? Sep 06 $1 $0 +3%
US Open Final: Sinner vs. Alcaraz? Sep 06 $1 $0 +35%
US Open: Novak Djokovic vs Carlos Alcaraz Sep 06 $2 +$1 +30%
US Open: Naomi Osaka vs Amanda Anisimova Sep 05 $1 +$1 +104%
Will Panama win on 2025-09-04? Sep 05 $1 −$1 -100%
US Open: Karolina Muchova vs Naomi Osaka Sep 04 $1 $0 +43%
Giants vs. Rockies Sep 04 $1 $0 +47%
US Open: Amanda Anisimova vs Beatriz Haddad Maia Sep 02 $9 +$1 +8%
US Open: Adrian Mannarino vs Jiri Lehecka Sep 02 $2 +$1 +43%
US Open: Barbora Krejcikova vs Taylor Townsend Aug 31 $20 −$14 -71%
US Open: Alexander Bublik vs Tommy Paul Aug 31 $5 +$4 +89%
US Open: Beatriz Haddad Maia vs Maria Sakkari Aug 31 $5 +$7 +144%
US Open: Jerome Kym vs Taylor Fritz Aug 30 $11 $0 -1%
US Open: Aryna Sabalenka vs Leylah Fernandez Aug 30 $9 +$2 +16%
Boise State vs. South Florida Aug 29 $1 +$1 +96%
US Open: Jenson Brooksby vs Flavio Cobolli Aug 28 $1 +$1 +100%
Timberwolves vs. Pistons Jul 23 $1 +$1 +59%
Wimbledon Final – Alcaraz vs. Sinner Jul 13 $2 +$2 +92%
Will PSG win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jul 13 $2 $0 -12%
Will Jannik Sinner win Wimbledon 2025? Jul 13 $1 $0 -31%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 73¢ $10 19h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $6 19h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 33¢ $2 21h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $5 45h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $12 4d
Halle Open: Joao Fonseca vs Yannick Hanfmann BUY Joao Fonseca 70¢ $5 4d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $7 4d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 68¢ $5 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 70¢ $7 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $5 5d
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev SELL Alexander Zverev 100¢ $24 11d
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev BUY Alexander Zverev 82¢ $20 11d
European Open: Zizou Bergs vs Raphael Collignon BUY Bergs 58¢ $1 247d
Almaty Open: Laslo Djere vs Alexander Shevchenko BUY Djere $1 247d
Will Arthur Rinderknech win the 2025 ATP Shanghai Masters Men’s Single BUY Yes 63¢ $1 250d
Will Daniil Medvedev win the 2025 ATP Shanghai Masters Men’s Singles T SELL No 100¢ $2 250d
Ningbo Open, Qualification: McCartney Kessler vs Tamara Korpatsch BUY Kessler 56¢ $1 250d
Will Daniil Medvedev win the 2025 ATP Shanghai Masters Men’s Singles T BUY No 80¢ $2 251d
Miami vs. Florida State BUY Florida State 51¢ $1 256d
Ankalaev vs. Pereira BUY Pereira 32¢ $1 256d
Appalachian State vs. Southern Mississippi BUY Appalachian State 62¢ $1 278d
Georgia vs. Tennessee BUY Georgia 63¢ $1 278d
Boxing: Will Canelo Álvarez win by Points or Decision? BUY Yes 41¢ $2 278d
Ravens vs. Bills BUY Ravens 40¢ $1 283d
Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2025 US Open? SELL Yes 99¢ $2 283d
Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2025 US Open? BUY Yes 45¢ $1 284d
Boston College vs. Michigan State BUY Michigan State 62¢ $1 285d
North Carolina vs. Charlotte BUY North Carolina 86¢ $1 285d
North Texas vs. Western Michigan BUY North Texas 79¢ $1 285d
Vanderbilt vs. Virginia Tech BUY Virginia Tech 55¢ $1 285d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.55 · official $9.55 (match) · 377 history records