Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T13:45:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
1C 0x1c7d…9eb8 other 106 markets active 1h ago coverage 93d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$23 (+0%) realized +$23 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate14%14W / 89L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown89%max
Avg bet$243per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit48%portable
Net worth$224now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$15
7 days+$14
14 days+$14
30 days+$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 67% −$30
politics 15% −$5
sports 8% +$57
economics 5% −$1
culture 3% −$1
tech 2% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-6.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +19.0% +7.6% 33% 17% -8.2%
≤30d 17 +6.6% -3.5% 12% 6% -9.1%
≤90d 101 +3.9% -6.0% 14% 11% -9.5%
all 103 +3.8% -6.1% 14% 11% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.1% 11% -9.5%
10% -15.1% 10% -18.1%
15% -23.3% 8% -26.0%
20% -30.8% 7% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +6% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$1 · ×8.34 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.31 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

93d coverage
Net worth$224
Realized+$23
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses14 / 89
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)103 / 106
History coverage93d
Avg bet$243
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown89%
Kalshi-fit48%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 103 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $89 $89 +$0 (+0%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in June? No 100¢ 99¢ $85 $85 −$0 (-0%)
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? No 99¢ 99¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 19 $13 +$15 +114%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 18 $271 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 17 $99 $0 +0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $36 $0 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 16 $508 −$1 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $33 $0 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $94 $0 -0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Jun 10 $44 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 08 $42 $0 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 06 $47 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $274 $0 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 02 $48 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $53 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $32 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $203 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 24 $440 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 23 $224 $0 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 17 $232 $0 -0%
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi May 17 $238 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 16 $434 −$1 -0%
Will Oceania (OCF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 16 $230 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 14 $696 −$1 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 14 $710 −$1 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? May 13 $230 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 11 $594 −$1 -0%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $243 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 09 $402 −$1 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $239 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 08 $218 $0 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? May 06 $409 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 05 $239 $0 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $467 −$1 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 04 $469 −$1 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 02 $220 $0 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 01 $226 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in April? May 01 $12 $0 +0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 30 $674 −$1 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? Apr 29 $241 $0 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 28 $240 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? Apr 24 $704 −$1 -0%
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 19 $238 $0 -0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $628 −$1 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 16 $407 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 16 $241 $0 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 16 $240 $0 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? Apr 15 $248 $0 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $421 $0 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $242 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 14 $659 −$1 -0%
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 13 $225 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $50 1h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $89 17h
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $46 28h
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $46 31h
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY New York Mets 46¢ $13 34h
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $36 2d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $36 2d
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in June? BUY No 100¢ $85 2d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $38 3d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $38 3d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $33 4d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $33 4d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $93 8d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $53 8d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $40 8d
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? SELL No 100¢ $44 8d
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY No 100¢ $44 9d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $42 11d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $42 11d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $47 13d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $47 13d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $40 15d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $40 15d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $53 15d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $53 16d
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $48 17d
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $48 17d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $53 18d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $53 18d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $32 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $223.87 · official $223.87 (match) · 321 history records