Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:13:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1C 0x1c86…0933 sports 214 markets active 9h ago coverage 76d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$95 (-7%) realized −$95 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate33%70W / 143L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day5.9pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$10
14 days−$23
30 days−$59
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 79% −$85
other 20% −$23
world 1% −$5
crypto 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-17.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -14.7% -22.8% 19% 12% -18.9%
≤30d 116 -9.9% -18.5% 26% 15% -17.8%
≤90d 213 -9.1% -17.8% 33% 24% -16.5%
all 213 -9.1% -17.8% 33% 24% -16.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.8% 24% -16.5%
10% -25.7% 19% -24.5%
15% -32.8% 7% -31.8%
20% -39.4% 5% -38.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×1.18 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

76d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$95
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses70 / 143
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions0
Markets (closed)213 / 214
History coverage76d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day5.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 213 Trades
no open positions (11 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -97%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 13 $4 −$2 -50%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 13 $4 −$2 -40%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $12 +$1 +7%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 13 $4 $0 -3%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 12 $3 $0 -16%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $4 $0 -5%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $4 $0 -7%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 11 $4 $0 -7%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 11 $12 +$1 +12%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 11 $8 −$1 -7%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 11 $4 $0 -3%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 11 $4 $0 -9%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 11 $16 −$4 -23%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 10 $8 $0 -5%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 10 $3 +$1 +22%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 10 $4 $0 +9%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 10 $4 $0 -8%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 10 $4 −$1 -24%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 10 $4 −$1 -18%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 10 $4 −$2 -43%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 10 $4 $0 -12%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 10 $4 $0 +12%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 10 $4 $0 -2%
Libema Open: Nikola Bartunkova vs Hanne Vandewinkel Jun 09 $4 −$1 -18%
Libema Open: Katie Volynets vs Zeynep Sonmez Jun 09 $4 $0 +6%
Libema Open: Jaume Munar vs Martin Damm Jun 09 $4 $0 -4%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 09 $4 −$1 -15%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 09 $7 $0 -2%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 09 $1 $0 -61%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 09 $4 +$2 +46%
Stuttgart Open: Tommy Paul vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard Jun 08 $4 $0 -3%
Stuttgart Open: Gauthier Onclin vs Fabian Marozsan Jun 08 $8 −$1 -18%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 08 $4 $0 +6%
Libema Open: Marin Cilic vs Denis Shapovalov Jun 08 $4 $0 -4%
Libema Open: Daria Snigur vs Paula Badosa Jun 08 $4 $0 -6%
Libema Open: Daria Kasatkina vs Robin Montgomery Jun 08 $4 −$1 -19%
Stuttgart Open: Pierre-Hugues Herbert vs Martin Landaluce Jun 08 $16 −$1 -6%
Stuttgart Open: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Mattia Bellucci Jun 08 $4 $0 -6%
Libema Open: Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Panna Udvardy Jun 08 $8 −$1 -8%
Libema Open: Magda Linette vs Kimberly Birrell Jun 08 $4 −$1 -14%
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Terence Atmane Jun 08 $4 $0 -12%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 08 $8 −$1 -7%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 08 $4 −$1 -19%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 07 $12 +$2 +16%
New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres Jun 07 $8 $0 +5%
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 07 $4 $0 +4%
Libema Open, Qualification: Katie Volynets vs Lin Zhu Jun 07 $4 $0 -6%
Stuttgart Open, Qualification: Roman Safiullin vs Alexis Galarneau Jun 07 $4 $0 -1%
Birmingham: Alexandra Eala vs Nikola Bartunkova Jun 07 $4 $0 -7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND BUY 10¢ $2 8h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 9h
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics SELL Athletics 28¢ $2 4d
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 54¢ $4 4d
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins SELL St. Louis Cardinals 47¢ $2 4d
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins BUY St. Louis Cardinals 77¢ $4 4d
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays SELL Toronto Blue Jays 76¢ $4 4d
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 75¢ $4 4d
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays SELL Toronto Blue Jays 77¢ $5 4d
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 64¢ $4 4d
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians SELL Cleveland Guardians 77¢ $4 4d
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY Cleveland Guardians 78¢ $4 4d
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays SELL Toronto Blue Jays 79¢ $4 4d
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 76¢ $4 4d
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates SELL Pittsburgh Pirates 44¢ $3 4d
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 51¢ $3 4d
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL G2 64¢ $4 4d
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 66¢ $4 4d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL FURIA 61¢ $4 5d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FURIA 64¢ $4 5d
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals SELL Texas Rangers 63¢ $4 5d
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Texas Rangers 66¢ $4 5d
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies SELL Chicago Cubs 81¢ $4 5d
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Chicago Cubs 75¢ $4 5d
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies SELL Chicago Cubs 90¢ $5 5d
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Chicago Cubs 71¢ $4 5d
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies SELL Chicago Cubs 76¢ $4 5d
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Chicago Cubs 71¢ $4 5d
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels SELL Houston Astros 50¢ $4 6d
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Houston Astros 55¢ $4 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $2.00 · 495 history records