Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:31:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
1C 0x1c8d…e6a0 world 31 markets active 1h ago coverage 278d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$5 (+1%) realized +$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate45%14W / 17L
Drawdown26%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 31% +$6
politics 25% $0
other 23% −$1
sports 12% $0
tech 5% $0
crypto 3% $0
culture 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-8.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 10 +5.7% -4.4% 30% 30% -7.6%
≤90d 10 +5.7% -4.4% 30% 30% -7.6%
all 31 +1.6% -8.1% 45% 10% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.1% 10% -8.8%
10% -16.9% 0% -17.5%
15% -24.9% 0% -25.5%
20% -32.3% 0% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 72% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
79% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×1.85 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.59 per $1 lost it wins $2.59
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

278d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses14 / 17
Open positions0
Markets (closed)31 / 31
History coverage278d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown26%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 31 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 17 $38 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 27 $4 +$1 +20%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 26 $34 $0 -1%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 26 $68 −$1 -2%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 25 $39 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 24 $14 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 24 $15 +$3 +20%
Will Alberta join the US? May 24 $3 $0 -2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 23 $14 +$3 +22%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? May 21 $19 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 16 $30 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 14 $18 $0 -2%
Will Ethereum dip to $800 by December 31? Dec 11 $13 $0 +1%
Will Heather Humphreys win the Irish Presidential Election? Oct 24 $15 −$1 -5%
Will Trump pardon Sam Bankman-Fried in 2025? Oct 22 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Dallas Mavericks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 22 $43 $0 +0%
Will Evelyn Matthei win the Chilean presidential election? Oct 21 $15 +$1 +4%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Oct 04 $4 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Oct 02 $4 $0 +2%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Oct 01 $2 $0 -4%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 01 $1 $0 -1%
Will Israel raid Gaza aid flotilla by October 3? Oct 01 $5 $0 -2%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 by December 31? Oct 01 $5 $0 +0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? Oct 01 $12 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in 2025? Sep 30 $6 $0 -4%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 30 $30 $0 +0%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Sep 29 $29 $0 +0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Sep 24 $31 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Turkey? Sep 23 $30 $0 +0%
Will Google have the top AI model on September 30? Sep 22 $30 $0 +0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Sep 22 $30 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $38 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $38 2h
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 6¢ $5 21d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 5¢ $4 22d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $33 22d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $34 22d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 49¢ $32 22d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 49¢ $2 22d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 50¢ $16 22d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 50¢ $20 22d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $3 23d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $35 23d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $39 23d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 90¢ $7 24d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 90¢ $7 24d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 90¢ $14 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 53¢ $4 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 53¢ $14 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 44¢ $15 24d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 24d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 24d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 24d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 39¢ $17 25d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 32¢ $14 25d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 52¢ $19 26d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 52¢ $14 26d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $33 26d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL Yes 25¢ $19 27d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 27d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $9 27d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 172 history records