Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T09:37:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1C
0x1c8e…aacb
weather · 150 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$69 -7%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$82 · open +$21
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$141
Realized−$82
Unrealized+$21
Win rate (resolved)3%
Wins / losses4 / 140
Open positions6
Markets (closed)144 / 150
History coverage56d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day16.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%
Chart Positions 6 History 144 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$87
7 days+$87
14 days+$87
30 days+$475
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Silver (SI) settle over $80 on the final trading day of June 2026? No 68¢ 88¢ $30 $39 +$9 (+30%)
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switzerland’s June 14, 2026 popular vote? No 71¢ 78¢ $30 $33 +$3 (+9%)
Will Tesla deliver between 450000 and 475000 vehicles in Q2 2026 No 68¢ 80¢ $20 $24 +$4 (+18%)
Will OpenAI GPT score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last Exam? No 74¢ 75¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO day? No 70¢ 95¢ $10 $13 +$3 (+35%)
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes 69¢ 79¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+14%)
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on April 20? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 14°C on April 20? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C or higher on April 20? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 43°C on April 21? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on April 21? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on April 20? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 56-57°F on April 21? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 76-77°F on April 20? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on April 19? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 17°C or higher on April 20? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on April 20? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on April 20? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on April 20? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 74-75°F on April 19? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 20°C or below on April 20? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 16°C on April 21? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 6°C on April 21? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 35°C on April 20? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 26°C on April 20? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 14 $20 −$1 -6%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? Jun 14 $10 −$6 -60%
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at >$84 in June? Jun 14 $20 −$6 -29%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 12 $102 +$71 +70%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $31 +$30 +97%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on April 20? May 26 $14 +$388 +2863%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? May 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 74-75°F on April 20? Apr 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 15°C on April 21? Apr 20 $3 −$3 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on Apri Apr 20 $0 $0 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on April 20? Apr 20 $5 −$4 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 15°C on April 21? Apr 20 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 16°C on April 21? Apr 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 14°C on April 20? Apr 20 $6 −$6 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on April 21? Apr 20 $9 −$9 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 6°C on April 21? Apr 20 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on April 20? Apr 20 $13 −$13 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 43°C on April 21? Apr 20 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on April 19? Apr 20 $3 +$101 +2969%
Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 35°C on April 20? Apr 20 $2 −$2 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 29°C on April 20? Apr 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 27°C on April 20? Apr 20 $3 −$3 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on April 21? Apr 20 $0 $0 -96%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 54-55°F on Ap Apr 20 $8 −$7 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C or higher on April 20? Apr 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on April 20? Apr 20 $14 −$13 -98%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 46-47°F on Ap Apr 20 $3 −$3 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 13°C on April 21? Apr 20 $6 −$6 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 74°F or higher on April Apr 20 $2 −$2 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 26°C on April 20? Apr 20 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 13°C on April 20? Apr 20 $3 −$3 -95%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 56-57°F on Ap Apr 20 $4 −$4 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 22°C on April 20? Apr 20 $11 −$10 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on April 21? Apr 20 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on April 21? Apr 20 $4 −$4 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 13°C on April 20? Apr 20 $3 −$3 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on April 21? Apr 20 $4 −$4 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C or higher on April 20? Apr 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 19°C on April 21? Apr 20 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 4°C on April 20? Apr 20 $0 $0 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 16°C on April 20? Apr 20 $0 $0 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C or higher on April 21? Apr 20 $7 −$6 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 20°C on April 21? Apr 20 $2 −$2 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 14°C on April 21? Apr 20 $0 $0 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 12°C on April 21? Apr 20 $0 $0 -94%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 12°C on April 20? Apr 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 15°C on April 20? Apr 20 $6 −$6 -99%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 45°F or below on Apri Apr 20 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 6°C on April 20? Apr 20 $17 −$17 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 12°C on April 20? Apr 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 69% −$168
tech 18% +$108
other 6% +$12
finance 3% −$12
world 2% −$2
economics 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 77¢ $19 1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? SELL No 29¢ $4 1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at >$84 in June? SELL Yes 47¢ $14 1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at >$84 in June? BUY Yes 64¢ $20 8d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? BUY No 60¢ $20 8d
Will Tesla deliver between 450000 and 475000 vehicles in Q2 2026 BUY No 68¢ $20 8d
Will Silver (SI) settle over $80 on the final trading day of June 2026 BUY No 68¢ $30 10d
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switz BUY No 71¢ $30 10d
Will OpenAI GPT score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last Exam? BUY No 74¢ $20 10d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? BUY No 37¢ $10 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 82¢ $20 10d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? BUY No 58¢ $102 10d
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY Yes 69¢ $10 11d
Will OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO da BUY No 70¢ $10 11d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? BUY No 69¢ $10 11d
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? BUY No 3¢ $1 18d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 74-75°F on April 20? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 54d
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 15°C on April 21? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 54d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on Apri BUY Yes 1¢ $0 54d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on April 20? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 54d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 15°C on April 21? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 54d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on April 20? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 54d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on Apri BUY Yes 1¢ $0 54d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on April 20? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 54d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 16°C on April 21? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 54d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 15°C on April 21? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 54d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 14°C on April 20? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 54d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 16°C on April 21? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 54d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 14°C on April 20? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 54d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 15°C on April 21? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 54d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-70.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +14.4% +3.5% 40% 40% +33.7%
≤30d 7 +281.7% +245.4% 43% 43% +154.6%
≤90d 144 -66.9% -70.0% 3% 3% -34.0%
all 144 -66.9% -70.0% 3% 3% -34.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover16.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -70.0% 3% -34.0%
10% -72.9% 3% -40.3%
15% -75.5% 3% -46.1%
20% -77.9% 3% -51.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $140.67 · official $142.14 · 932 history records