Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T17:25:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1C 0x1c8f…4182 politics 178 markets active 2h ago coverage 558d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$569 (-4%) realized −$569 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate20%35W / 143L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$87per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$60est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$27
14 days−$229
30 days−$262
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 39% −$37
other 16% −$120
politics 15% −$110
world 14% −$161
crypto 9% −$110
finance 3% −$38
economics 2% +$3
culture 1% −$33
tech 1% −$21
weather 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-21.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -18.9% -26.7% 8% 0% -16.1%
≤30d 52 -15.3% -23.3% 12% 2% -15.8%
≤90d 130 -15.5% -23.5% 7% 1% -15.8%
all 178 -13.5% -21.7% 20% 3% -13.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.7% 3% -13.1%
10% -29.2% 2% -21.4%
15% -36.0% 1% -29.0%
20% -42.3% 1% -36.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -14% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$6 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.17 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

558d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$569
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses35 / 143
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$60
Open positions0
Markets (closed)178 / 178
History coverage558d
Avg bet$87
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 178 Trades
no open positions (14 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 27 $87 $0 -0%
Will Ed Miliband be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in Jun 24 $10 −$4 -37%
Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 46.0 and 48.9 in June? Jun 24 $14 −$1 -11%
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by July 31? Jun 24 $16 −$3 -19%
Will the Bank of Japan announce no change at the September 2026 meetin Jun 24 $34 −$5 -15%
Will Wes Streeting be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK i Jun 24 $23 $0 +0%
Will Alexandru Nazare be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Jun 24 $2 −$1 -51%
Will Beth Davidson be the Democratic nominee for NY-17? Jun 21 $10 −$5 -54%
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 21 $37 −$1 -4%
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 21 $64 $0 +1%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 202 Jun 21 $31 −$1 -4%
Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026? Jun 21 $34 $0 +0%
Will Cait Conley be the Democratic nominee for NY-17? Jun 21 $10 −$5 -52%
Will Ed Hale win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary electio Jun 20 $10 −$3 -34%
Will Antonio Reynoso be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? Jun 18 $8 $0 -3%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 18 $0 $0 -47%
Will Durable Goods Orders MoM be between -4% and -2% in May? Jun 18 $14 −$2 -17%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Bogotá in the second round Jun 18 $24 −$3 -14%
Will annual inflation be 3.9% in June? Jun 18 $38 −$1 -4%
Will Celeste Maloy be the Republican nominee for UT-03? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 14 $32 −$11 -33%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 14 $152 −$118 -78%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 14 $132 −$38 -29%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $56 $0 +0%
Will Hylo launch a token by December 31, 2027? Jun 14 $102 −$18 -18%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? Jun 14 $258 $0 +0%
Will Switzerland be the highest-scoring team in Group B during the Gro Jun 14 $63 −$1 -1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 14 $70 $0 -0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 13 $34 $0 +0%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? Jun 13 $170 $0 +0%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Jun 13 $62 $0 +0%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $184 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 13 $162 +$1 +1%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 12? Jun 11 $168 +$16 +10%
Will Grahm Platner drop out before the Midterms? Jun 10 $36 −$12 -33%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 10 $138 $0 +0%
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 06 $36 −$23 -65%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 05 $160 −$4 -2%
Will Pamela Evette win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican pri Jun 05 $126 −$4 -3%
Will Karen Bass & Nithya Raman advance to the second round of the 2026 Jun 05 $28 $0 -0%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 05 $108 $0 -0%
Will Loranne Ausley win the Tallahassee mayoral election? Jun 05 $121 +$3 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 5? Jun 04 $9 −$2 -17%
Will Giovanni Legnini win the 2026 Chieti mayoral election? Jun 04 $20 −$20 -100%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 04 $321 +$2 +1%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 04 $50 −$1 -1%
Will Rossella Fini win the 2026 San Giovanni Rotondo mayoral election? Jun 04 $146 −$17 -12%
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 03 $56 −$4 -7%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 03 $134 −$4 -3%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? Jun 03 $128 −$4 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL Yes 78¢ $39 1h
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY Yes 78¢ $39 1h
Will Ed Miliband be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in SELL Yes 13¢ $6 2d
Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 46.0 and 48.9 in June? SELL Yes 25¢ $12 2d
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by July 31? SELL Yes 25¢ $12 2d
Will the Bank of Japan announce no change at the September 2026 meetin SELL Yes 60¢ $29 2d
Will Ed Miliband be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in BUY Yes 20¢ $10 3d
Will the Bank of Japan announce no change at the September 2026 meetin BUY Yes 69¢ $34 3d
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by July 31? BUY Yes 31¢ $16 3d
Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 46.0 and 48.9 in June? BUY Yes 27¢ $14 3d
Will Wes Streeting be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK i SELL No 46¢ $23 3d
Will Wes Streeting be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK i BUY No 46¢ $23 3d
Will Alexandru Nazare be the next Prime Minister of Romania? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 3d
Will Alexandru Nazare be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 3d
Will Beth Davidson be the Democratic nominee for NY-17? SELL Yes 9¢ $4 5d
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? SELL No 64¢ $15 5d
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? SELL No 37¢ $18 5d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 202 SELL No 61¢ $30 5d
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? BUY No 36¢ $18 5d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 202 BUY No 62¢ $31 5d
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes 51¢ $26 5d
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 51¢ $26 5d
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes 41¢ $10 5d
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes 41¢ $10 5d
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 41¢ $20 5d
Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026? SELL Yes 68¢ $34 5d
Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026? BUY Yes 68¢ $7 5d
Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026? BUY Yes 68¢ $27 5d
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY No 70¢ $17 6d
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? SELL No 42¢ $21 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 505 history records