Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T15:09:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1C 0x1c92…3e42 crypto 937 markets active 2h ago coverage 63d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$21 (+0%) realized +$21 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate92%858W / 79L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$75per market
Trades / day22.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$15
7 days+$55
14 days+$120
30 days−$583
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$144
sports 0% +$33
other 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 52 +8.8% -1.5% 100% 2% -8.5%
≤30d 470 -3.8% -13.0% 91% 1% -10.7%
≤90d 937 -0.3% -9.8% 92% 2% -9.7%
all 937 -0.3% -9.8% 92% 2% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.8% 2% -9.7%
10% ← realistic here -18.4% 1% -18.3%
15% -26.3% 1% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 1% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$18 · ×0.08 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

63d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$21
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)92%
Wins / losses858 / 79
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)937 / 937
History coverage63d
Avg bet$75
Trades / day22.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 937 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 21 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 21 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 21 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 21 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 21 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 21 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 21 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 21 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 20 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 20 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 20 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 20 $68 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 20 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 19 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 19 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 19 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 19 $36 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 19 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 19 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 19 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 19 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 18 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 18 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 18 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 18 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 17 $101 +$8 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 17 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 17 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 17 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 17 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 17 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 17 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 17 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 17 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 16 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 16 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 16 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 16 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 16 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 16 $68 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 15 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 15 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 15 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 15 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 15 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 14 $100 +$1 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $68 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $36 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $101 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET SELL Up 79¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET SELL Up 74¢ $5 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2319 history records