Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T21:59:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1C
0x1c96…ef8c
crypto · 1651 markets active 0h ago
3.5score
+$197 +11%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$197 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1
Realized+$197
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses736 / 673
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1409 / 1651
History coverage34d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day58.9
Drawdown22%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 1 History 1409 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$28
7 days+$22
14 days+$196
30 days+$210
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Down 47¢ 55¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+16%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Up 49¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Up 41¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Down 40¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Down 48¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Up 60¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Down 10¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Up 44¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Down 45¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Up 43¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Up 55¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Up 46¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Up 38¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Down 48¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Down 45¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Up 38¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Down 47¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Down 47¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Down 40¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Down 48¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Up 44¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Up 73¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Down 27¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Down 44¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$3 +331%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$3 +313%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$3 +252%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$2 +190%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$2 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$2 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$2 +208%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$2 +218%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$3 +240%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$2 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$2 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$2 +198%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$3 +240%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$2 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$2 +181%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$3 +240%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$2 +190%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$2 +181%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$4 +374%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$2 +181%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$3 +296%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% +$197
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $1 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $1 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $1 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $1 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $1 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)+2.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 75 +25.1% +13.2% 43% 43% +16.1%
≤30d 1313 +14.6% +3.7% 53% 53% +4.3%
≤90d 1409 +12.8% +2.0% 52% 52% +2.5%
all 1409 +12.8% +2.0% 52% 52% +2.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover58.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +2.0% 52% +2.5%
10% ← realistic here -7.7% 50% -7.3%
15% -16.7% 49% -16.3%
20% -24.8% 46% -24.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.16 · official $0.84 (match) · 2708 history records