Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T09:45:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1C 0x1c98…47b9 other 36 markets active 1h ago coverage 285d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$36 (+3%) realized +$36 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate34%12W / 23L
Drawdown14%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days+$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 54% +$7
other 36% +$23
sports 6% +$5
politics 4% $0
tech 1% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-4.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -1.1% -10.5% 0% 0% -10.0%
≤30d 12 +0.2% -9.3% 25% 0% -8.6%
≤90d 12 +0.2% -9.3% 25% 0% -8.6%
all 35 +5.6% -4.5% 34% 9% -6.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.5% 9% -6.6%
10% -13.6% 9% -15.5%
15% -22.0% 6% -23.7%
20% -29.6% 3% -31.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 61% · top 2 76% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
75% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late +7% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$1 · ×3.54 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×6.07 per $1 lost it wins $6.07
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

285d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized+$36
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses12 / 23
Open positions1
Markets (closed)35 / 36
History coverage285d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown14%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 20 $16 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $74 −$1 -1%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $6 $0 -2%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $8 $0 -3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 18 $48 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 17 $71 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $71 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $72 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $64 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 04 $47 +$5 +10%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 03 $143 +$6 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $51 −$3 -5%
Will Trump pardon Daniel Penny in 2025? Dec 30 $32 $0 +2%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? Dec 12 $31 −$3 -10%
Will Newcastle win on 2025-12-02? Dec 12 $21 +$26 +127%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $9 $0 +0%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $4 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Nov 25 $21 $0 +0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? Nov 25 $36 $0 +0%
Patriots vs. Bengals Nov 25 $14 +$4 +30%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Nov 24 $13 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 23 $13 $0 +0%
Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? Nov 23 $5 $0 +0%
Will Wolves win on 2025-11-22? Nov 20 $53 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Nov 20 $39 $0 -0%
Will Brighton win on 2025-11-22? Nov 20 $22 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-29? Nov 19 $14 $0 +0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-11-22? Nov 18 $14 $0 +0%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-11-22? Nov 15 $6 $0 +0%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model on October 31? Nov 14 $6 $0 +1%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 24 $2 +$1 +42%
Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025? Oct 24 $4 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 23 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2025 National League Championship? Oct 05 $34 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 08 $33 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY Yes 6¢ $4 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $16 6h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $16 9h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $19 13h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $47 13h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 87¢ $67 18h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 18h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 18h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 18h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 18h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 18h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 5¢ $6 22h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 15¢ $7 36h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 38h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 38h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $8 38h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $8 42h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 82¢ $31 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 82¢ $16 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 82¢ $48 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 90¢ $71 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 90¢ $71 2d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $53 12d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $2 12d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $12 12d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $44 12d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $5 13d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 13d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 50¢ $36 14d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 50¢ $6 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.74 · official $3.74 (match) · 178 history records