Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T16:35:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
1C 0x1c9b…6faa crypto 58 markets active 2h ago coverage 546d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$10 (-0%) realized −$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate77%44W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$124per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$76now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 81% −$11
crypto 12% +$2
politics 4% −$1
sports 1% $0
tech 1% $0
economics 0% $0
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 5 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
all 57 +0.2% -9.3% 77% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.0% 0% -18.3%
15% -25.9% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.07 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.23 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

546d coverage
Net worth$76
Realized−$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses44 / 13
Open positions1
Markets (closed)57 / 58
History coverage546d
Avg bet$124
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 57 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $76 $76 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in May? Jun 03 $81 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in April? May 04 $12 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $28 in April? May 04 $70 $0 +0%
Will Chainlink reach $20 in March? Apr 02 $13 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $130 in March? Apr 02 $65 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in February? Mar 03 $24 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.20 in February? Mar 03 $64 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $200 in January? Feb 02 $23 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $8 in January? Feb 02 $46 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.00 in December? Jan 02 $7 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,400 in December? Jan 02 $27 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid reach $52 in December? Jan 02 $51 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5,400 in November? Dec 02 $65 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $150 in October? Nov 03 $11 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model on October 31? Nov 03 $21 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5600 in October? Nov 03 $49 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in September? Oct 02 $22 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.60 in September? Oct 02 $37 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the top AI model on August 31? Sep 02 $9 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $145 in August? Sep 02 $13 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $290 in August? Sep 02 $57 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.9 in July? Aug 02 $11 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $250 in July? Aug 02 $17 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $140K in July? Aug 02 $49 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3200 in June? Jul 02 $31 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in June? Jul 02 $39 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $250 in May? Jun 23 $6 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $85k in May? Jun 23 $15 $0 +0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ap May 02 $1 $0 +1%
U.S. recession before May 2025? May 02 $4 $0 +1%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.24 in April? May 02 $6 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be less than 20% on April 30? May 02 $9 $0 +2%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on April 30? May 02 $10 $0 +0%
Will Trump remove tariff on China before May? May 02 $10 $0 +1%
Will XRP reach $2.70 in April? May 02 $10 $0 +3%
Will the Greens win the most seats in the next Australian parliamentar Apr 21 $134 $0 -0%
Will Jack Doohan be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Apr 18 $56 $0 -0%
Will the Liberal Party win the most seats in Saskatchewan in the next Apr 14 $74 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Elon Musk in his first 100 days? Apr 14 $62 $0 -0%
Will Jaylen Wells win NBA Rookie of the Year? Apr 12 $60 $0 -0%
Bitcoin all time high by March 31? Apr 02 $10 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.10 in March? Apr 02 $10 $0 +0%
XRP all time high by March 31? Apr 02 $10 $0 +0%
Will Solana hit $190 in March? Apr 02 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Columbus Blue Jackets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 19 $5,477 −$11 -0%
Will global temperature increase by less than 1.20ºC in February 2025? Mar 05 $16 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru Mar 04 $15 $0 +2%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after May 2025 meeting? Feb 20 $17 $0 -0%
Will another team win the Bundesliga? Feb 20 $22 $0 -0%
Will Anderlecht win the UEFA Europa League? Feb 19 $29 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? BUY No 100¢ $76 1h
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in May? BUY No 100¢ $81 30d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in April? BUY No 100¢ $12 62d
Will Hyperliquid dip to $28 in April? BUY No 100¢ $70 63d
Will Chainlink reach $20 in March? BUY No 100¢ $13 92d
Will Solana reach $130 in March? BUY No 100¢ $65 93d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in February? BUY No 100¢ $8 121d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in February? BUY No 100¢ $15 121d
Will XRP reach $3.20 in February? BUY No 100¢ $64 122d
Will Solana reach $200 in January? BUY No 100¢ $23 150d
Will Hyperliquid dip to $8 in January? BUY No 100¢ $46 150d
Will XRP reach $3.00 in December? BUY No 100¢ $7 181d
Will Ethereum reach $4,400 in December? BUY No 100¢ $27 182d
Will Hyperliquid reach $52 in December? BUY No 100¢ $51 183d
Will Ethereum reach $5,400 in November? BUY No 100¢ $65 212d
Will Solana dip to $150 in October? BUY No 100¢ $11 243d
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model on October 31? BUY No 100¢ $21 243d
Will Ethereum reach $5600 in October? BUY No 100¢ $49 243d
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in September? BUY No 100¢ $22 273d
Will XRP reach $3.60 in September? BUY No 100¢ $37 274d
Will xAI have the top AI model on August 31? BUY No 100¢ $9 301d
Will Solana dip to $145 in August? BUY No 100¢ $13 302d
Will Solana reach $290 in August? BUY No 100¢ $57 303d
Will XRP dip to $1.9 in July? BUY No 100¢ $11 333d
Will Solana reach $250 in July? BUY No 100¢ $17 333d
Will Bitcoin reach $140K in July? BUY No 99¢ $49 334d
Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in June? BUY No 100¢ $39 363d
Will Ethereum reach $3200 in June? BUY No 99¢ $31 366d
Will Bitcoin dip to $85k in May? BUY No 100¢ $5 393d
Will Bitcoin dip to $85k in May? BUY No 100¢ $10 394d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $76.04 · official $76.04 (match) · 119 history records