Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T19:16:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1C 0x1c9b…5b41 sports 36 markets active 0h ago coverage 206d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$5,593 (-65%) realized −$5,594 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate34%12W / 23L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$240per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$49est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$43now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$40
7 days−$53
14 days−$53
30 days−$53
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 70% −$5,526
sports 25% −$7
other 5% −$45
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-35.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -17.3% -25.2% 43% 7% -11.2%
≤30d 28 -17.3% -25.2% 43% 7% -11.2%
≤90d 28 -17.3% -25.2% 43% 7% -11.2%
all 35 -28.1% -35.0% 34% 6% -70.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -35.0% 6% -70.0%
10% -41.2% 0% -72.8%
15% -46.9% 0% -75.5%
20% -52.1% 0% -77.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -28% · $-wt -67% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -36% → late -20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$247 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

206d coverage
Net worth$43
Realized−$5,594
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses12 / 23
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$49
Open positions1
Markets (closed)35 / 36
History coverage206d
Avg bet$240
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $42 $43 +$1 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Spain (-4.5) Jun 21 $122 +$21 +17%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $61 $0 +0%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $19 $0 +1%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $264 +$4 +1%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 21 $14 −$4 -26%
Spain to score first vs. Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $49 $0 -0%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $146 −$45 -31%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $327 +$9 +3%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $15 −$2 -14%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $15 −$2 -16%
Spread: Netherlands (-4.5) Jun 20 $3 −$3 -97%
Spread: Netherlands (-3.5) Jun 20 $3 −$3 -97%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $30 −$1 -3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 20? Jun 20 $447 +$12 +3%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $44 $0 -0%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 20 $4 $0 -3%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $428 +$22 +5%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $171 −$8 -4%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $27 +$1 +3%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $152 −$60 -39%
United States vs. Australia: Australia O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $7 $0 -3%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $6 $0 -6%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 19 $410 +$23 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 19 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 19 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 19 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 19 $10 +$1 +14%
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? Dec 03 $13 $0 -0%
Over $2M committed to the Makina public sale? Dec 02 $13 $0 -0%
Solana Up or Down - November 30, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Nov 30 $1,250 −$1,250 -100%
Solana Up or Down - November 30, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Nov 30 $1,300 −$1,300 -100%
Solana Up or Down - November 27, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Nov 27 $825 −$825 -100%
Solana Up or Down - November 27, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Nov 27 $850 −$850 -100%
Solana Up or Down - November 27, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Nov 27 $1,300 −$1,300 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 19¢ $97 2m
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 19¢ $38 2m
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 19¢ $2 2m
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 6m
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $69 6m
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $0 6m
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 6m
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $0 6m
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 6m
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 6m
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $3 6m
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 21¢ $56 7m
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 21¢ $48 7m
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $38 7m
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 7m
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 7m
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $53 7m
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $0 7m
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 7m
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $54 7m
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 7m
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $41 7m
Spread: Spain (-4.5) SELL Saudi Arabia 90¢ $22 1h
Spread: Spain (-4.5) SELL Saudi Arabia 90¢ $10 1h
Spread: Spain (-4.5) SELL Saudi Arabia 90¢ $21 1h
Spread: Spain (-4.5) SELL Saudi Arabia 90¢ $27 1h
Spread: Spain (-4.5) SELL Saudi Arabia 90¢ $9 1h
Spread: Spain (-4.5) SELL Saudi Arabia 83¢ $12 1h
Spread: Spain (-4.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 30¢ $4 1h
Spread: Spain (-4.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 30¢ $4 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $42.75 · official $42.75 (match) · 283 history records