Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:16:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
1C 0x1c9c…6469 sports 715 markets active 22h ago coverage 115d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$542 (+2%) realized +$543 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate69%492W / 222L
Drawdown60%max
Avg bet$43per market
Trades / day19.7pace
Fees−$191est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$9now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$539
7 days−$450
14 days−$250
30 days−$320
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$386
other 0% −$3
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-7.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 46 -0.4% -9.9% 65% 37% -23.1%
≤30d 252 -2.1% -11.4% 65% 34% -11.7%
≤90d 660 +1.0% -8.6% 68% 40% -8.8%
all 714 +2.5% -7.3% 69% 41% -8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.3% 41% -8.4%
10% -16.1% 24% -17.2%
15% -24.2% 15% -25.2%
20% -31.7% 9% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$10 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.17 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

115d coverage
Net worth$9
Realized+$543
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses492 / 222
Est. fees paid−$191
Open positions1
Markets (closed)714 / 715
History coverage115d
Avg bet$43
Trades / day19.7
Drawdown60%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 714 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bilibili Gaming win the LPL 2026 season? Yes 62¢ 54¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff Jun 19 $30 −$19 -62%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 4 Winner Jun 19 $552 −$547 -99%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 3 Winner Jun 19 $55 +$1 +1%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $55 +$8 +15%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner Jun 19 $5 +$4 +84%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 3 Winne Jun 19 $62 +$2 +4%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO5) - Asia M Jun 18 $105 +$5 +5%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs Jun 18 $251 +$10 +4%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner Jun 18 $116 −$13 -11%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $140 −$4 -2%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 2 Winne Jun 18 $101 +$13 +13%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 1 Winne Jun 18 $105 +$2 +2%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $55 +$2 +3%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner Jun 18 $55 −$2 -3%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 4 Winner Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner Jun 18 $22 +$6 +25%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo Jun 18 $16 −$1 -7%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner Jun 18 $61 +$6 +9%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $10 +$5 +49%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $10 +$5 +46%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast Jun 17 $110 −$4 -3%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner Jun 17 $70 −$6 -8%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $50 +$9 +18%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $20 +$2 +9%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $51 +$3 +6%
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $100 +$5 +5%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors (BO3) - Asia Masters La Jun 15 $100 +$11 +11%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $5 +$1 +21%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La Jun 15 $15 −$1 -5%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $31 +$5 +16%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 15 $76 −$16 -21%
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO3) - Asia Mas Jun 15 $100 +$8 +8%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $100 +$13 +13%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $60 +$6 +9%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $20 +$10 +51%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $41 +$9 +23%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $20 +$14 +68%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $10 +$5 +51%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $20 +$12 +60%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $20 −$10 -51%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $125 +$11 +8%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $20 −$1 -6%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $10 +$2 +23%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $17 $0 -1%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $20 +$5 +23%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $5 +$10 +187%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $30 +$3 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff BUY KT Rolster Challengers 6¢ $5 22h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff BUY KT Rolster Challengers 55¢ $10 22h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 4 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 91¢ $501 23h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 4 Winner SELL T1 Academy 8¢ $5 23h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 Academy 78¢ $50 23h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff SELL KT Rolster Challengers 50¢ $9 23h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff BUY KT Rolster Challengers 58¢ $10 23h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff SELL T1 Academy 44¢ $3 23h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 3 Winner SELL KT Rolster Challengers 97¢ $54 24h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 3 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 90¢ $50 24h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 3 Winner SELL T1 Academy 25¢ $2 24h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff BUY T1 Academy 68¢ $5 24h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 Academy 60¢ $5 24h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner SELL T1 Academy 99¢ $1 24h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner SELL T1 Academy 99¢ $57 24h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 Academy 86¢ $50 24h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner SELL T1 Academy 84¢ $6 25h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 Academy 68¢ $5 25h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner SELL KT Rolster Challengers 99¢ $9 25h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 53¢ $5 26h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO5) - Asia M SELL KT Rolster Challengers 99¢ $100 45h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO5) - Asia M BUY KT Rolster Challengers 96¢ $100 45h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 3 Winne BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 7¢ $2 46h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 3 Winne SELL KT Rolster Challengers 96¢ $53 46h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 3 Winne BUY KT Rolster Challengers 91¢ $50 46h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 3 Winne SELL KT Rolster Challengers 72¢ $6 46h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 3 Winne BUY KT Rolster Challengers 56¢ $5 47h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 3 Winne SELL KT Rolster Challengers 50¢ $6 47h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 3 Winne BUY KT Rolster Challengers 42¢ $5 47h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 2 Winne SELL KT Rolster Challengers 97¢ $57 47h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8.63 · official $8.63 (match) · 2659 history records