Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:24:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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1C 0x1c9e…8d54 crypto 795 markets active 1h ago coverage 21d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 20d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$17 (+0%) realized +$3 · open +$14
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR72%break-even
Win rate72%595W / 234L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day44.5pace
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$193now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 71% −$3,781
weather 28% −$555
other 1% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +72%
net ROI/market (all)-15.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 388 -38.9% -44.7% 48% 48% -45.2%
≤30d 829 -6.1% -15.1% 72% 72% -13.9%
≤90d 829 -6.1% -15.1% 72% 72% -13.9%
all 829 -6.1% -15.1% 72% 72% -13.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover44.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.1% 72% -13.9%
10% ← realistic here -23.2% 52% -22.2%
15% -30.6% 18% -29.7%
20% -37.4% 5% -36.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -23% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +23% → late -35% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$47 · ×0.19 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.49 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

21d coverage
Net worth$193
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$14
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses595 / 234
Open positions10
Markets (closed)829 / 795
History coverage21d ⚠
Avg bet$31
Trades / day44.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 829 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 17? No 77¢ 100¢ $18 $23 +$5 (+30%)
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on June 17? No 77¢ 98¢ $18 $23 +$5 (+27%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 17? No 71¢ 90¢ $18 $22 +$5 (+26%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 17? No 81¢ 100¢ $18 $22 +$4 (+23%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 18? No 81¢ 84¢ $18 $18 +$1 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 17? No 80¢ 84¢ $18 $18 +$1 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 18? No 76¢ 74¢ $17 $17 −$0 (-3%)
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on June 18? No 81¢ 75¢ $18 $16 −$1 (-7%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on June 18? No 80¢ 74¢ $18 $16 −$1 (-7%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 17? No 72¢ 60¢ $18 $15 −$3 (-16%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 185 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 23, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 17 $9 −$18 -200%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 22, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$7 -200%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 23, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 17 $16 −$32 -200%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 23, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 17 $32 −$65 -200%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 18, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$12 -200%
XRP Up or Down - May 23, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 17 $20 −$40 -200%
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $19 −$39 -200%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 22, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 17 $21 −$43 -200%
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $23 −$45 -200%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 23, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 17 $14 −$28 -200%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 18, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$11 -200%
Solana Up or Down - May 23, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 17 $29 −$58 -200%
Solana Up or Down - May 26, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$11 -200%
XRP Up or Down - May 21, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 17 $33 −$65 -200%
Solana Up or Down - May 18, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 17 $8 −$15 -200%
XRP Up or Down - May 22, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 17 $22 −$43 -200%
XRP Up or Down - May 18, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$12 -200%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 23, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 17 $8 −$17 -200%
Solana Up or Down - May 25, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 17 $7 −$13 -200%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 22, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$13 -200%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 19, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$5 -200%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 26, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 17 $8 −$16 -200%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 23, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 17 $7 −$14 -200%
Solana Up or Down - May 21, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 17 $16 −$32 -200%
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $18 −$37 -200%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 22, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 17 $12 −$24 -200%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 22, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 17 $11 −$22 -200%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 23, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 17 $7 −$14 -200%
Solana Up or Down - May 27, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$10 -200%
Solana Up or Down - May 15, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$14 -200%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 24, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$20 -200%
Solana Up or Down - May 23, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 17 $40 −$79 -200%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 24, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 17 $9 −$18 -200%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$13 -200%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 26, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$10 -200%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 18, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 17 $11 −$23 -200%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 23, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$13 -200%
Solana Up or Down - May 22, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 17 $22 −$43 -200%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 23, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 17 $14 −$29 -200%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 20, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$12 -200%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 23, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 17 $76 −$152 -200%
XRP Up or Down - May 22, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 17 $16 −$33 -200%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 21, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$7 -200%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 22, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$14 -200%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 17 $11 −$21 -197%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 17 $28 +$7 +25%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$2 +33%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 17 $8 +$3 +42%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 17 $7 +$3 +36%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 17 $12 +$3 +23%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $11 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $28 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $5 4h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $8 4h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $7 4h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $12 5h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $6 5h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $7 5h
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 18? BUY No 81¢ $18 6h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on June 18? BUY No 80¢ $18 6h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Jun BUY No 81¢ $18 7h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $22 9h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $22 15h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $16 16h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $7 16h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $10 16h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 18? BUY No 76¢ $18 16h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $12 16h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $6 17h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $45 17h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $5 17h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 17? BUY No 72¢ $18 17h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $5 18h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $17 18h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $9 18h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $29 18h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on Jun BUY No 77¢ $18 19h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $6 20h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $8 20h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $26 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $193.29 · official $191.97 (match) · 3500 history records