Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T09:30:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1C 0x1c9f…6ada weather 223 markets active 2h ago coverage 540d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$11 (-0%) realized −$11 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate46%101W / 120L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$40now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 33% $0
other 20% −$1
politics 15% −$6
crypto 14% +$1
tech 10% +$2
culture 5% −$2
sports 2% −$2
world 1% −$4
finance 1% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +0.0% -9.5% 56% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 89 -0.0% -9.5% 38% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 165 -0.0% -9.5% 39% 0% -9.5%
all 221 -2.8% -12.1% 46% 1% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.1% 1% -9.8%
10% -20.5% 1% -18.4%
15% -28.2% 0% -26.3%
20% -35.2% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 56% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

540d coverage
Net worth$40
Realized−$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses101 / 120
Open positions2
Markets (closed)221 / 223
History coverage540d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 221 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on June 25? No 100¢ 100¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 106°F or higher on June 25? No 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 59°F or below on June 2 Jun 25 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 85°F or below on June 25? Jun 25 $26 $0 -0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.20 on June 25? Jun 25 $6 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 25? Jun 25 $13 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 27°C on June 25? Jun 25 $15 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C or below on June 25? Jun 25 $18 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 24? Jun 24 $22 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 36°C on June 19? Jun 19 $16 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C or below on June 19? Jun 19 $24 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 19°C on June 4? Jun 05 $5 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 7°C or below on June 4? Jun 04 $29 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 27°C on June 4? Jun 04 $10 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $73,000 on June 3? Jun 04 $8 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 12°C on June 3? Jun 03 $15 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $29 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 40°C on June 3? Jun 03 $20 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 3? Jun 03 $10 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 3? Jun 03 $26 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 4? Jun 03 $27 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 23°C on June 3? Jun 03 $20 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 13°C on June 3? Jun 02 $18 $0 -0%
Will "The Boroughs" be the #2 global Netflix show this week? Jun 02 $16 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 41°C on June 2? Jun 02 $13 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 24°C on June 2? Jun 02 $11 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on June 2? Jun 02 $11 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C or higher on June 2? Jun 02 $17 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 2? Jun 02 $27 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 64-65°F on June 2? Jun 02 $29 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 1? Jun 02 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 60-61°F on June Jun 01 $15 $0 -0%
Will NYC Mayor post 0-19 posts from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 01 $22 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C on June 1? Jun 01 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 56-57°F on June Jun 01 $8 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 30°C on June 1? Jun 01 $15 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 37°C on June 1? Jun 01 $39 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 57°F or below on June 1? Jun 01 $28 $0 +0%
Will the Ethereum Volatility Index dip to 40 by May 31? Jun 01 $7 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture Lyman by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $6 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,200 and $2,300 on May 31? Jun 01 $4 $0 +0%
Will Ant Middleton summit Everest in between 3 and 4 days? Jun 01 $6 $0 -0%
Will there be at least 2400 measles cases in the U.S. by May 31, 2026? May 31 $10 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in May? May 31 $9 $0 +0%
Will Ferrari have the highest constructor score at the 2026 F1 Canadia May 31 $10 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 31? May 31 $6 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 31? May 31 $11 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $70 in May? May 31 $19 $0 -0%
Will Mistral have the #3 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Contro May 31 $6 $0 -0%
Will xAI have the second-best Coding AI model at the end of May 2026? May 31 $21 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on May 31? May 31 $17 $0 -0%
Will Trump meet with Benjamin Netanyahu in May 2026? May 31 $8 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 59°F or below on June 2 SELL No 100¢ $30 1h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 85°F or below on June 25? SELL No 100¢ $23 2h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 85°F or below on June 25? SELL No 100¢ $3 2h
Will the price of XRP be above $1.20 on June 25? SELL No 100¢ $3 2h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on June BUY No 100¢ $30 2h
Will the price of XRP be above $1.20 on June 25? SELL No 100¢ $3 3h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 25? SELL Yes 100¢ $13 4h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 27°C on June 25? SELL No 100¢ $15 5h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C or below on June 25? SELL No 100¢ $18 5h
Will the price of XRP be above $1.20 on June 25? BUY No 100¢ $6 7h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 25? BUY Yes 100¢ $13 8h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 106°F or higher on June 25? BUY No 100¢ $10 9h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C or below on June 25? BUY No 100¢ $12 11h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 27°C on June 25? BUY No 100¢ $15 18h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 59°F or below on June 2 BUY No 100¢ $30 19h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 85°F or below on June 25? BUY No 100¢ $26 22h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C or below on June 25? BUY No 100¢ $5 24h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 24? BUY No 100¢ $22 26h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 36°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $16 5d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C or below on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $24 6d
Will Bitcoin reach $73,000 on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $8 21d
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 19°C on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $5 21d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $29 21d
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 3? SELL No 100¢ $10 21d
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 7°C or below on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $29 21d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 3? SELL No 100¢ $25 21d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 4? SELL No 100¢ $27 21d
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $10 22d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $27 22d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 27°C on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $10 22d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39.68 · official $39.68 (match) · 507 history records