Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:13:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1C 0x1ca0…cb82 sports 255 markets active 15h ago coverage 133d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,184 (-27%) realized −$2,169 · open −$15
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate31%76W / 173L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$32est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$45now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$57
7 days−$496
14 days−$496
30 days−$649
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 49% −$978
other 39% −$1,083
finance 6% −$60
world 5% −$11
economics 1% −$52
crypto 1% −$36
politics 0% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-24.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 52 -11.6% -20.0% 29% 29% -35.5%
≤30d 58 -8.7% -17.4% 28% 28% -37.6%
≤90d 192 -39.2% -45.0% 19% 19% -50.5%
all 249 -16.0% -24.0% 31% 29% -34.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.0% 29% -34.8%
10% -31.3% 27% -41.0%
15% -37.9% 24% -46.7%
20% -44.0% 21% -52.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -45% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +16% → late -48% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$35 vs −$28 · ×1.25 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

133d coverage
Net worth$45
Realized−$2,169
Unrealized−$15
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses76 / 173
Est. fees paid−$32
Open positions5
Markets (closed)249 / 255
History coverage133d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 249 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Luis Diaz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $25 $16 −$9 (-34%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $11 +$1 (+11%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $7 +$2 (+41%)
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $7 −$3 (-34%)
Will Folarin Balogun be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $4 −$6 (-60%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 66 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $126 +$72 +57%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $71 +$71 +100%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 4.5 Jun 19 $20 −$20 -98%
Spread: United States (-3.5) Jun 19 $51 −$50 -98%
Folarin Balogun: 1+ goals Jun 19 $51 −$50 -98%
Folarin Balogun: 2+ goals Jun 19 $20 −$20 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $61 −$60 -98%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $61 −$60 -99%
Jude Bellingham: 1+ goals Jun 17 $10 +$40 +388%
Harry Kane: 2+ goals Jun 17 $15 +$92 +596%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $10 +$20 +197%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $51 +$47 +93%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $51 +$53 +105%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 −$18 -18%
Declan Rice: 1+ goals Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $50 −$50 -99%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $51 −$50 -99%
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ assists Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ goals Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $25 −$25 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $51 +$29 +57%
Lionel Messi: 2+ goals Jun 17 $10 +$56 +550%
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals Jun 17 $15 +$18 +119%
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jun 17 $10 +$42 +414%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $25 +$42 +165%
Nicolas Jackson: 1+ goals Jun 16 $15 −$15 -98%
Ismaïla Sarr: 1+ goals Jun 16 $15 −$15 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $26 −$25 -98%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $40 −$40 -99%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $57 −$56 -99%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 15 $25 −$25 -98%
Darwin Núñez: 1+ goals Jun 15 $25 −$25 -98%
Darwin Núñez: 2+ goals Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Darwin Núñez: 3+ goals Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $20 +$7 +32%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $41 +$39 +97%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $8 +$4 +45%
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ assists Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Cucurella: 1+ assists Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Ferrán Torres: 3+ goals Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Ferrán Torres: 1+ goals Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Ferrán Torres: 2+ goals Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Spain (-4.5) Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $15 −$15 -98%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $76 −$75 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $76 −$75 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
United States vs. Australia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 17¢ $20 15h
Spread: United States (-3.5) BUY United States 19¢ $51 15h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 49¢ $71 15h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 63¢ $126 16h
Folarin Balogun: 1+ goals BUY Yes 49¢ $51 16h
Folarin Balogun: 2+ goals BUY Yes 31¢ $20 16h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 35¢ $61 33h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 66¢ $61 2d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 2d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 50¢ $83 2d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $51 2d
Jude Bellingham: 1+ goals BUY Yes 20¢ $10 2d
Harry Kane: 2+ goals BUY Yes 14¢ $15 2d
Declan Rice: 1+ goals BUY Yes 13¢ $10 2d
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $51 2d
Spread: England (-2.5) BUY England 15¢ $5 2d
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 33¢ $10 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $25 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $76 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $50 2d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 52¢ $51 2d
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ assists BUY Yes 34¢ $10 2d
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ goals BUY Yes 29¢ $10 2d
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals BUY Yes 22¢ $10 2d
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 55¢ $25 2d
Will Luis Diaz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 2d
Luis Díaz: 1+ goals AND Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals AND Harry Kane: 2+ BUY $10 2d
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) BUY Argentina 19¢ $10 3d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 37¢ $25 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $45.16 · official $45.16 (match) · 554 history records