Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T14:44:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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1C 0x1ca1…9c22 crypto 837 markets active 0h ago coverage 36d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$6 (+1%) realized +$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR76%break-even
Win rate81%678W / 158L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day45.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$17
14 days−$28
30 days−$19
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +76%
net ROI/market (all)-13.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 379 -5.5% -14.5% 82% 80% -13.3%
≤30d 825 -4.1% -13.2% 81% 76% -11.3%
≤90d 836 -3.8% -13.0% 81% 76% -11.1%
all 836 -3.8% -13.0% 81% 76% -11.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover45.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.0% 76% -11.1%
10% ← realistic here -21.3% 12% -19.6%
15% -28.9% 3% -27.4%
20% -35.9% 2% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.21 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

36d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized+$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)81%
Wins / losses678 / 158
Open positions1
Markets (closed)836 / 837
History coverage36d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day45.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 836 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Up 79¢ 80¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 153 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $1 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET SELL Down 88¢ $1 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $1 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $1 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET SELL Down 90¢ $1 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $1 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET SELL Down 97¢ $1 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $1 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET SELL Up 90¢ $1 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $1 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET SELL Up 93¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET SELL Up 84¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET SELL Up 89¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET SELL Up 88¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET SELL Down 89¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET SELL Up 93¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET SELL Up 90¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $1 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.25 · official $2.25 (match) · 1657 history records