Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:52:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
1C 0x1ca3…9613 sports 472 markets active 0h ago coverage 1003d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$1,024 (+2%) realized +$1,133 · open −$109
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR59%break-even
Win rate61%286W / 184L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$124per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$532est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$755now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1003d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 88% −$3,782
other 9% −$628
crypto 2% +$107
world 1% +$86
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +59%
net ROI/market (all)-16.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 79 -3.0% -12.3% 66% 61% -12.9%
≤30d 227 -9.5% -18.1% 59% 57% -14.8%
≤90d 468 -7.7% -16.5% 61% 59% -15.9%
all 470 -7.3% -16.1% 61% 59% -15.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.1% 59% -15.8%
10% -24.2% 50% -23.8%
15% -31.5% 34% -31.2%
20% -38.2% 17% -37.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -5% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$44 vs −$91 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1003d coverage
Net worth$755
Realized+$1,133
Unrealized−$109
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses286 / 184
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$532
Open positions2
Markets (closed)470 / 472
History coverage1003d
Avg bet$124
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 470 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Colombia (-2.5) Uzbekistan 82¢ 95¢ $653 $755 +$102 (+16%)
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Under 61¢ 0¢ $211 $0 −$211 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 98 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $606 −$386 -64%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 18 $252 +$61 +24%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $501 +$195 +39%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $309 −$305 -99%
Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-4.5) Jun 17 $51 +$21 +41%
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) Jun 17 $181 +$55 +30%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $25 +$25 +97%
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jun 17 $474 −$471 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $203 −$200 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $152 −$150 -99%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 7.5 Jun 17 $297 +$13 +4%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $253 −$250 -99%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $100 −$99 -99%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 16 $271 −$267 -98%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 16 $140 +$32 +23%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 16 $100 −$99 -99%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $201 −$198 -99%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $101 −$100 -99%
Nottingham 2: Remy Bertola vs Yibing Wu Jun 16 $202 +$239 +118%
Dublin: Jerome Kym vs Thanasi Kokkinakis Jun 16 $120 −$119 -99%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl Jun 16 $66 +$54 +82%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $219 +$64 +29%
Dota 2: Mentality Monster vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - EPL World Jun 16 $82 −$81 -99%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 11.5 Jun 16 $171 +$56 +33%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 16 $200 +$58 +29%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $685 +$86 +13%
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) Jun 16 $85 +$5 +6%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $99 +$14 +14%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 16 $102 +$63 +62%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $99 +$37 +38%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $198 +$74 +38%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $324 +$169 +52%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $289 +$135 +47%
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Zachary Svajda Jun 15 $128 +$59 +46%
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Cloud Rising - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $348 +$80 +23%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Team Refuser - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $101 +$45 +44%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $398 +$105 +26%
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $182 −$180 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $497 +$160 +32%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $96 +$26 +27%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $156 +$40 +26%
Spread: Texas Rangers (-3.5) Jun 15 $544 −$4 -1%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $182 +$56 +31%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $114 +$55 +48%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $113 −$111 -99%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $407 −$364 -89%
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) Jun 14 $166 +$56 +34%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Colombia (-2.5) BUY Uzbekistan 86¢ $399 23m
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 9¢ $58 23m
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 45¢ $304 27m
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 53¢ $145 29m
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 63¢ $100 36m
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 60¢ $113 39m
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 10¢ $16 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 90¢ $251 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 30¢ $51 1h
Spread: Colombia (-2.5) BUY Uzbekistan 77¢ $258 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 100¢ $696 2h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Toronto Blue Jays 80¢ $252 2h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 75¢ $249 3h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 68¢ $252 3h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Jordan 61¢ $98 23h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Jordan 60¢ $210 23h
Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-4.5) SELL Los Angeles Angels 100¢ $72 23h
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) SELL Los Angeles Dodgers 100¢ $237 23h
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 76¢ $181 24h
Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-4.5) BUY Los Angeles Angels 70¢ $51 24h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score SELL No 100¢ $50 24h
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) BUY Algeria 83¢ $64 25h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $152 25h
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) BUY Algeria 81¢ $251 25h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY No 50¢ $25 26h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 37¢ $51 26h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 58¢ $51 26h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 BUY Under 45¢ $51 27h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 2.5 BUY Under 73¢ $101 27h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Algeria 64¢ $152 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $754.81 · official $754.81 (match) · 1061 history records