Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:32:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1C 0x1ca8…2966 other 113 markets active 2h ago coverage 91d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$73 (-0%) realized −$73 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate9%10W / 102L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$160per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$97now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 61% +$21
politics 24% −$4
tech 5% −$1
sports 5% −$91
economics 3% −$1
culture 1% $0
world 1% $0
finance 1% $0
crypto 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-16.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 16 -0.1% -9.6% 12% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 112 -7.1% -16.0% 9% 5% -9.9%
all 112 -7.1% -16.0% 9% 5% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.0% 5% -9.9%
10% -24.0% 5% -18.5%
15% -31.4% 5% -26.4%
20% -38.1% 4% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 66% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$1 · ×5.12 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.5 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

91d coverage
Net worth$97
Realized−$73
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses10 / 102
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)112 / 113
History coverage91d
Avg bet$160
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 112 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $98 $97 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 17 $27 $0 -0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Jun 16 $19 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 12 $29 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $34 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 10 $21 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $215 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 04 $55 $0 -0%
Will XRP reach $1.80 in May? Jun 02 $42 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 02 $67 $0 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 31 $35 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 30 $181 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 29 $31 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 24 $34 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? May 23 $30 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $253 $0 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 18 $312 $0 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 15 $270 $0 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 14 $161 $0 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? May 14 $157 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? May 13 $156 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 12 $146 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 10 $500 −$1 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $147 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 09 $156 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 08 $146 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 07 $161 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 06 $159 $0 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $160 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 04 $297 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 03 $163 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $441 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 02 $427 $0 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $149 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in April? May 01 $29 +$1 +2%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 30 $302 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 29 $148 $0 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? Apr 27 $151 $0 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 20 $289 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $151 $0 -0%
Will Park Ju-min win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 18 $154 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $157 $0 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $325 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $310 $0 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 16 $162 $0 -0%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 15 $160 $0 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $150 $0 -0%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 14 $150 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $157 $0 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 14 $166 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on April Apr 13 $458 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $27 1h
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $27 5h
Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $98 9h
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? SELL No 100¢ $19 22h
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY No 100¢ $19 26h
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $29 4d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $29 5d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $34 5d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $34 6d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $21 6d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $21 7d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $23 8d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $23 8d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $35 13d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $35 13d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $20 13d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $20 13d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 99¢ $35 17d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $35 17d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $30 18d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $30 18d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $31 18d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $31 18d
Will XRP reach $1.80 in May? BUY No 100¢ $42 22d
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $34 23d
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $34 24d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $30 24d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $30 24d
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $33 26d
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $33 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $97.42 · official $97.42 (match) · 304 history records