Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:36:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1C 0x1ca8…e1e7 crypto 2194 markets active 5h ago coverage 45d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 44d only
✗ bot/MM pace (50 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$34 (-1%) realized −$34 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate59%1272W / 896L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day50.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$54
7 days−$36
14 days−$11
30 days+$58
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (50 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 180 -29.8% -36.5% 53% 35% -20.6%
≤30d 881 +0.1% -9.5% 66% 53% -5.9%
≤90d 2168 -3.0% -12.2% 59% 54% -10.9%
all 2168 -3.0% -12.2% 59% 54% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover50.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.2% 54% -10.9%
10% ← realistic here -20.6% 51% -19.4%
15% -28.3% 48% -27.2%
20% -35.3% 44% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

45d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$34
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses1272 / 896
Open positions0
Markets (closed)2168 / 2194
History coverage45d ⚠
Avg bet$2
Trades / day50.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 2168 Trades
no open positions (500 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 2, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin above 80,000 on May 2, 11AM ET? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin above 80,400 on May 2, 11AM ET? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $2 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $2 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $2 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $2 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $2 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $2 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $2 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $2 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $2 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $2 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $2 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $2 15h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $2 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $2 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $2 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $2 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $2 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $2 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $2 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $2 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $2 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $2 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $2 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $2 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $2 17h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records