Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T19:49:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
1C 0x1ca9…5bc5 crypto 1343 markets active 2h ago coverage 47d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 47d only
✗ bot/MM pace (65 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$121 (+2%) realized +$121 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate55%775W / 632L
Drawdown78%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day65.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$178
7 days+$492
14 days+$564
30 days+$388
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$535
sports 0% −$3
other 0% −$1
finance 0% −$1
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (65 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-1.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 503 +2.8% -7.0% 43% 41% +4.1%
≤30d 968 +7.5% -2.8% 55% 48% -3.0%
≤90d 1407 +9.1% -1.3% 55% 49% -6.8%
all 1407 +9.1% -1.3% 55% 49% -6.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover65.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -1.3% 49% -6.8%
10% ← realistic here -10.8% 42% -15.7%
15% -19.4% 36% -23.9%
20% -27.3% 28% -31.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late +9% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$4 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.13 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

47d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$121
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses775 / 632
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1407 / 1343
History coverage47d ⚠
Avg bet$6
Trades / day65.0
Drawdown78%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1407 Trades
no open positions (500 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 25 $0 $0 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 31, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on April 29? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 1, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 25 $0 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C on April 28? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 25 $0 $0 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 25 $1 $0 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 25 $0 $0 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 25 $5 −$4 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 25 $0 +$1 +192%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 25 $0 $0 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 25 $0 $0 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 25 $0 $0 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 25 $0 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET SELL Up 45¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET SELL Up 37¢ $67 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET SELL Up 62¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET SELL Up 91¢ $74 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $41 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11AM ET SELL Up 36¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $20 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10AM ET SELL Down 2¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET SELL Down 31¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $1 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records