Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:46:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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1C 0x1ca9…02e1 sports 22 markets active 16h ago coverage 12d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$813 (-22%) realized −$847 · open +$34
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%8W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$169per market
Trades / day32.2pace
Fees−$52est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$245now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$287
7 days+$60
14 days−$895
30 days−$895
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 93% −$963
other 6% +$101
crypto 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-17.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +13.1% +2.3% 45% 45% -6.4%
≤30d 20 -9.0% -17.6% 40% 40% -32.7%
≤90d 20 -9.0% -17.6% 40% 40% -32.7%
all 20 -9.0% -17.6% 40% 40% -32.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover32.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.6% 40% -32.7%
10% ← realistic here -25.5% 40% -39.1%
15% -32.7% 40% -45.0%
20% -39.3% 35% -50.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 60% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -26% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -42% → late +24% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
17.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$174 vs −$190 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$245
Realized−$847
Unrealized+$34
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses8 / 12
Est. fees paid−$52
Open positions2
Markets (closed)20 / 22
History coverage12d
Avg bet$169
Trades / day32.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 20 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? Yes 35¢ 40¢ $200 $232 +$32 (+16%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Yes 66¢ 74¢ $11 $13 +$1 (+13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast Jun 17 $303 +$325 +107%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S Jun 16 $123 −$123 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $52 +$85 +165%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $255 +$503 +197%
Will George Russell get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand P Jun 13 $31 +$71 +233%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 13 $51 −$51 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $148 +$61 +41%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $363 −$363 -100%
New York Liberty vs. Atlanta Dream: O/U 164.5 Jun 12 $80 −$80 -100%
Mexico leading at halftime? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 Jun 11 $364 −$364 -100%
Spread: Atlanta Dream (-8.5) Jun 10 $106 −$106 -100%
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-16.5) Jun 09 $8 −$8 -100%
Chicago Sky vs. Toronto Tempo: O/U 175.5 Jun 07 $73 −$73 -100%
Indiana Fever vs. New York Liberty Jun 07 $277 +$195 +70%
Spread: New York Liberty (-3.5) Jun 07 $52 +$54 +105%
Dallas Wings vs. Los Angeles Sparks: O/U 178.5 Jun 06 $94 +$95 +101%
Spread: Spurs (-7.5) Jun 06 $746 −$746 -100%
Atlanta Dream vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 174.5 Jun 05 $124 −$124 -100%
Atlanta Dream vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 173.5 Jun 05 $242 −$242 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 46¢ $9 16h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 46¢ $2 16h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 46¢ $2 16h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 46¢ $57 16h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 46¢ $7 16h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 46¢ $3 16h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 46¢ $3 16h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 46¢ $4 16h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 46¢ $2 16h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 46¢ $5 16h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 46¢ $8 16h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 46¢ $2 16h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 46¢ $89 16h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 46¢ $2 16h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 46¢ $5 16h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 52¢ $15 23h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 52¢ $8 23h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 52¢ $3 23h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 52¢ $3 23h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 52¢ $5 23h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 52¢ $3 23h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 52¢ $5 23h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 52¢ $8 23h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 52¢ $3 23h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 52¢ $51 23h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S BUY KOLESIE 45¢ $21 26h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S BUY KOLESIE 51¢ $49 27h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S BUY KOLESIE 51¢ $3 27h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S BUY KOLESIE 51¢ $21 27h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S BUY KOLESIE 51¢ $10 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $245.25 · official $245.25 (match) · 416 history records