trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 2 | -0.0% | -9.5% | 0% | 0% | -9.5% |
| ≤30d | 8 | +1.6% | -8.1% | 75% | 0% | -9.5% |
| ≤90d | 13 | +1.2% | -8.4% | 85% | 0% | -9.5% |
| all | 20 | -3.9% | -13.0% | 85% | 0% | -9.5% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -13.0% | 0% | -9.5% |
| 10% | -21.4% | 0% | -18.2% |
| 15% | -29.0% | 0% | -26.1% |
| 20% | -35.9% | 0% | -33.3% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | $8,474 | $8,470 | −$4 (-0%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? | Jun 23 | $8,452 | −$1 | -0% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? | Jun 23 | $8,494 | −$1 | -0% |
| Will "Iceman - Drake" be the Billboard 200 #1 album for the week of Ju | May 27 | $1 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the Bank of Korea make no change to the base rate after the May M | May 27 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Cont | May 27 | $4 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 27°C on April 18? | May 27 | $1 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the April Meeting? | May 27 | $2 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Anthropic have the best Coding AI model at the end of April 2026? | May 27 | $4 | $0 | +7% |
| Will the Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS) win the second most seats in | Apr 18 | $1 | $0 | +1% |
| Will OpenAI have the best AI model for math on March 31? | Apr 18 | $3 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March? | Apr 18 | $5 | $0 | +0% |
| Will The Great Divide - Noah Kahan be the #1 song on US Spotify this w | Mar 27 | $1 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in February? | Mar 27 | $10 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? | Feb 06 | $3 | −$3 | -100% |
| Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on January 16? | Feb 06 | $1 | $0 | +0% |
| No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? | Feb 06 | $3 | $0 | +5% |
| Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in January? | Feb 06 | $5 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on December 22? | Jan 16 | $7,790 | +$11 | +0% |
| Will 'A Minecraft Movie' have the best domestic opening weekend in 202 | Jan 16 | $1 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on December 9? | Dec 21 | $3 | $0 | +0% |