Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T14:59:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
1C 0x1caf…6438 other 7 markets active 12h ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$155 (+3%) realized +$340 · open −$185
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +32% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +20% what you keep after slip
Net edge+20%after slip
Net WR80%break-even
Win rate80%4W / 1L
Drawdown1%max
Avg bet$705per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$2,535now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% +$1,377
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +80%
net ROI/market (all)+19.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +32.2% +19.7% 80% 80% +58.2%
≤30d 5 +32.2% +19.7% 80% 80% +58.2%
≤90d 5 +32.2% +19.7% 80% 80% +58.2%
all 5 +32.2% +19.7% 80% 80% +58.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +19.7% 80% +58.2%
10% +8.2% 80% +43.1%
15% -2.3% 80% +29.3%
20% -11.8% 60% +16.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 78% · top 2 90% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +75% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +32% · $-wt +75% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$393 vs −$9 · ×42.22 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×168.89 per $1 lost it wins $168.89
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$2,535
Realized+$340
Unrealized−$185
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses4 / 1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)5 / 7
History coverage3d
Avg bet$705
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown1%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Morocco leading at halftime? Yes 66¢ 62¢ $2,720 $2,535 −$185 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $1,522 +$1,228 +81%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $262 +$191 +73%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $9 −$9 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $180 +$82 +46%
Norway leading at halftime? Jun 16 $111 +$69 +62%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Morocco leading at halftime? BUY Yes 66¢ $2,748 12h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $453 14h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY 55¢ $1,522 23h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 64¢ $9 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND BUY 12¢ $103 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $262 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $180 3d
Norway leading at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $180 3d
Norway leading at halftime? BUY Yes 61¢ $111 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,535.33 · official $2,635.33 · 11 history records