Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T16:50:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
1C 0x1cb0…d64d crypto 121 markets active 1h ago coverage 100d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$286 (+16%) realized +$286 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate50%61W / 60L
Drawdown58%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$238
7 days+$224
14 days+$232
30 days+$232
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 89% +$112
other 5% −$51
sports 5% +$195
world 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 76 -4.3% -13.4% 43% 43% +4.8%
≤30d 86 -3.1% -12.3% 45% 45% +4.3%
≤90d 113 +0.0% -9.5% 49% 48% +3.4%
all 121 +0.8% -8.8% 50% 49% +3.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.8% 49% +3.7%
10% -17.5% 45% -6.2%
15% -25.5% 42% -15.2%
20% -32.8% 40% -23.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$12 · ×1.34 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.36 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

100d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$286
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses61 / 60
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)121 / 121
History coverage100d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown58%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 121 Trades
no open positions (36 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 15 $21 +$20 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$5 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 15 $72 +$64 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 15 $42 −$40 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$8 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 15 $16 +$30 +190%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$4 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$7 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$10 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$5 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 15 $52 +$45 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 15 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$11 +107%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $20 +$19 +93%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $20 +$50 +246%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 14 $21 +$19 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 14 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$6 +62%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$10 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$13 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$11 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 14 $21 +$19 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 14 $52 −$3 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$5 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $137 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $52 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $11 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $11 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $10 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $10 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET SELL Up 84¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET SELL Up 70¢ $10 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $10 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $10 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET SELL Up 87¢ $18 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $10 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $10 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET SELL Up 94¢ $20 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 254 history records