Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T00:42:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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1C 0x1cb0…1ab9 crypto 1771 markets active 0h ago coverage 36d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Total PnL +$352 (+4%) realized −$665 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate76%1667W / 520L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day50.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$876
7 days−$846
14 days−$803
30 days−$701
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$284
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-25.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 934 -45.0% -50.3% 51% 5% -29.9%
≤30d 1978 -19.9% -27.5% 74% 10% -16.5%
≤90d 2187 -17.6% -25.5% 76% 10% -15.5%
all 2187 -17.6% -25.5% 76% 10% -15.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover50.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -25.5% 10% -15.5%
10% ← realistic here -32.6% 5% -23.6%
15% -39.1% 2% -31.0%
20% -45.1% 1% -37.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
85% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -38% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$3 · ×0.16 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.51 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

36d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized−$665
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses1667 / 520
Open positions0
Markets (closed)2187 / 1771
History coverage36d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day50.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 2187 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Up 96¢ 100¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+4%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Down 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Up 3¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Down 96¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Down 97¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Down 96¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Up 92¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Down 96¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - March 3, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Up 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Up 3¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - April 26, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Down 96¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - March 3, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Up 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - March 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Up 3¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - March 16, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Down 3¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - March 3, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Up 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - March 3, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Down 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - March 3, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Up 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Up 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Down 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - March 1, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Up 97¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - April 23, 1PM ET Down 95¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Up 97¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Down 97¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - March 3, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Up 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Up 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 3, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 26, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 3, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 16, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 3, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 3, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 3, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 1, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 23, 1PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 3, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 2, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 16, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 8, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 3, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 3, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
BNB Up or Down - April 21, 10AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 2, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 2, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 3, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 3, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 3, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 2, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 3, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 2, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 9, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 3, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 2, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 3, 3AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $6 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $6 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $6 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $6 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $6 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $6 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $6 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $6 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $6 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $6 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $6 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $6 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.00 · official $6.00 (match) · 3500 history records