Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T22:29:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1C 0x1cb3…f68f crypto 28 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$76 (-5%) realized −$76 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate71%20W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$53per market
Trades / day45.0pace
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 93% −$113
other 7% +$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-20.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -12.2% -20.6% 71% 50% -15.2%
≤30d 28 -12.2% -20.6% 71% 50% -15.2%
≤90d 28 -12.2% -20.6% 71% 50% -15.2%
all 28 -12.2% -20.6% 71% 50% -15.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover45.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.6% 50% -15.2%
10% ← realistic here -28.2% 36% -23.3%
15% -35.1% 18% -30.7%
20% -41.5% 4% -37.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -27% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$45 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$76
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses20 / 8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)28 / 28
History coverage1d
Avg bet$53
Trades / day45.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 28 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 22 $102 +$35 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 22 $51 +$15 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 22 $113 −$113 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 22 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 22 $102 +$36 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 22 $51 +$17 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 22 $62 +$43 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 22 $50 +$5 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 22 $42 +$5 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 22 $61 +$27 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 22 $51 +$16 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 22 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 22 $51 +$18 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 22 $51 −$50 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 22 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 22 $151 +$7 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 22 $25 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 22 $25 +$9 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 22 $25 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 22 $25 +$7 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 22 $55 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 22 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 22 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 22 $25 +$1 +6%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $101 +$20 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 22 $25 −$24 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 22 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 22 $57 −$57 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $137 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $51 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $50 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $51 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $11 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $51 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $51 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $50 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET SELL Up 100¢ $138 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET SELL Up 100¢ $68 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $50 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $51 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET SELL Up 100¢ $105 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $51 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $10 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $51 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $50 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $42 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET SELL Up 100¢ $69 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 0¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $158 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $151 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $25 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 63 history records