Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T03:35:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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1C 0x1cb3…226a crypto 1375 markets active 0h ago coverage 21d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 21d only
✗ bot/MM pace (104 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$865 (-10%) realized −$864 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate47%649W / 724L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day104.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$56
7 days+$72
14 days−$373
30 days−$228
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$229
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (104 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 641 +1.5% -8.2% 46% 46% -7.4%
≤30d 1373 -0.7% -10.1% 47% 45% -11.9%
≤90d 1373 -0.7% -10.1% 47% 45% -11.9%
all 1373 -0.7% -10.1% 47% 45% -11.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover104.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.1% 45% -11.9%
10% ← realistic here -18.7% 44% -20.3%
15% -26.6% 43% -28.0%
20% -33.8% 41% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$5 · ×1.05 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

21d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized−$864
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses649 / 724
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1373 / 1375
History coverage21d ⚠
Avg bet$6
Trades / day104.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 1373 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Down 45¢ 50¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+10%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Up 41¢ 14¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-65%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 65 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 23 $2 +$3 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 23 $47 −$45 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 23 $22 −$21 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 23 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 23 $7 −$7 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 23 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 23 $2 +$3 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 23 $2 +$3 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 23 $2 +$3 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 23 $54 +$62 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 23 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 23 $13 −$12 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 23 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 23 $5 +$7 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 23 $28 +$34 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 23 $14 −$13 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 23 $6 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 23 $15 +$17 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 23 $5 +$7 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 23 $6 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 23 $5 +$6 +138%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 23 $5 +$7 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 23 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 23 $35 −$35 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 23 $19 −$18 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 22 $10 −$9 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 22 $13 +$16 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 22 $7 −$7 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 22 $2 +$3 +173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 22 $4 +$6 +181%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 22 $5 +$6 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 22 $13 +$15 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 22 $6 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $5 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $2 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $2 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $47 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $22 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $1 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $2 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $9 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $7 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $4 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $54 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $24 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $28 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $14 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $15 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.17 · official $5.87 (match) · 3500 history records