Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T04:26:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1C 0x1cb4…7f69 world 33 markets active 1h ago coverage 370d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate34%11W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 59% −$1
other 21% $0
politics 10% $0
culture 4% $0
economics 3% $0
crypto 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -1.0% -10.4% 17% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 15 +0.1% -9.4% 27% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 15 +0.1% -9.4% 27% 0% -9.8%
all 32 -1.5% -10.8% 34% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.8% 0% -9.7%
10% -19.4% 0% -18.3%
15% -27.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -34.3% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 59% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

370d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses11 / 21
Open positions1
Markets (closed)32 / 33
History coverage370d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? No 40¢ 44¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $45 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $28 +$1 +5%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 15 $70 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $45 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $18 −$2 -10%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 10 $39 −$1 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 10 $3 $0 +10%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $1 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by December 31? Jun 09 $27 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 08 $47 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 06 $32 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $23 $0 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $43 $0 -1%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 03 $2 $0 +0%
Will US GDP growth in Q2 2025 be between -1% and -2%? Jul 25 $1 −$1 -56%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Jul 25 $30 $0 -0%
Will Trump sell 10k-25k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 25 $21 $0 +2%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jul 25 $18 $0 +1%
Will Pam Bondi leave the Trump administration in 2025? Jul 25 $15 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Jul 24 $16 $0 +0%
Will Vitinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 24 $16 $0 +0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec Jul 05 $2 $0 +0%
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Jul 04 $21 $0 -0%
Will Juventus win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jul 04 $2 $0 +3%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Jul 04 $20 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 04 $1 $0 +1%
Will George Russell be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Jul 04 $21 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jul 02 $21 $0 +1%
Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 02 $20 $0 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 01 $20 $0 +0%
Will Andrea Kimi Antonelli finish second in the 2025 Drivers Champions Jun 25 $22 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $45 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $45 3h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 10¢ $2 6h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 10¢ $3 6h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 10¢ $1 11h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 10¢ $4 11h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $17 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $1 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $9 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $2 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $28 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 72¢ $40 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 72¢ $35 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 72¢ $6 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 40¢ $44 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 40¢ $44 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 55¢ $45 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 55¢ $45 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 34¢ $12 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 34¢ $4 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 38¢ $11 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 38¢ $6 5d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 38¢ $2 7d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 37¢ $27 7d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 37¢ $9 7d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY Yes 38¢ $39 7d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $3 7d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 7d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 7d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.22 · official $0.00 (match) · 114 history records