Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:11:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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1C 0x1cb5…6be6 sports 952 markets active 0h ago coverage 103d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 102d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$9,895 (-10%) realized −$9,948 · open +$53
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate43%405W / 533L
Whale WR53%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$101per market
Trades / day27.9pace
Fees−$919est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$1,029now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$841
7 days−$1,959
14 days−$2,969
30 days−$2,684
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 85% −$6,396
other 7% −$669
finance 5% −$796
world 3% +$188
crypto 1% +$40
tech 0% +$12
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 152 -17.9% -25.7% 38% 38% -23.0%
≤30d 393 -3.2% -12.4% 43% 42% -15.8%
≤90d 740 -2.8% -12.1% 42% 41% -15.1%
all 938 -3.0% -12.2% 43% 41% -17.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.2% 41% -17.0%
10% ← realistic here -20.6% 41% -25.0%
15% -28.3% 39% -32.2%
20% -35.3% 37% -38.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 53% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +1% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$80 vs −$75 · ×1.06 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

103d coverage
Net worth$1,029
Realized−$9,948
Unrealized+$53
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses405 / 533
Whale WR (big bets)53%
Est. fees paid−$919
Open positions11
Markets (closed)938 / 952
History coverage103d ⚠
Avg bet$101
Trades / day27.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 938 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $175 $170 −$5 (-3%)
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala Alexandra Eala 40¢ 72¢ $79 $143 +$64 (+81%)
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees New York Yankees 64¢ 64¢ $129 $128 −$1 (-1%)
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Arizona Diamondbacks 61¢ 60¢ $123 $122 −$1 (-1%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $115 $114 −$1 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Stage illwill 53¢ 52¢ $106 $105 −$1 (-1%)
Nottingham Open: Katie Volynets vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro Katie Volynets 60¢ 60¢ $61 $60 −$1 (-1%)
Portugal leading at halftime? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $58 $57 −$0 (-1%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Over 54¢ 54¢ $55 $54 −$1 (-1%)
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Yes 49¢ 48¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Yes 43¢ 44¢ $24 $24 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 351 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl Jun 16 $121 −$120 -99%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $863 −$418 -48%
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet Jun 16 $102 −$100 -98%
HSBC Championships: Jenson Brooksby vs Martin Damm Jun 16 $112 −$111 -99%
Nottingham Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Leylah Fernandez Jun 16 $102 +$121 +119%
Set Handicap: Giron (-1.5) vs Buse (+1.5) Jun 16 $57 +$52 +91%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $119 −$118 -99%
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Marcos Giron Jun 16 $47 +$134 +286%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $32 −$32 -100%
Halle Open: Alexei Popyrin vs Raphael Collignon Jun 16 $63 +$32 +51%
Grass Court Championships: Katerina Siniakova vs Rebeka Masarova Jun 16 $35 −$34 -98%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $343 −$90 -26%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $110 +$84 +76%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $180 −$58 -32%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $106 −$105 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $38 +$62 +165%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Spirit Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $35 −$34 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $46 −$45 -98%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 15 $47 −$46 -98%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $102 +$96 +95%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $46 −$45 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $57 −$56 -99%
Jeremy Doku: 1+ goals Jun 15 $14 −$14 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $31 −$30 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $125 −$124 -99%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $109 +$94 +86%
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs RUSTEC (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Sta Jun 15 $344 +$57 +17%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $82 −$44 -53%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Suzan Lamens vs Dalma Galfi Jun 15 $208 +$99 +48%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $122 +$90 +73%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $148 −$98 -66%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $755 −$131 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 14 $42 −$40 -95%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $83 −$81 -98%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Lulu Sun vs Anhelina Kalinin Jun 14 $41 −$31 -76%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Katerina Siniakova vs Yue Yu Jun 14 $28 −$16 -57%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $113 −$26 -23%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $150 −$34 -22%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $322 −$318 -99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $127 +$35 +27%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $49 +$51 +105%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $60 +$42 +70%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $116 −$58 -50%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 13 $56 +$44 +79%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 13 $50 +$50 +100%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $55 +$45 +83%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $59 −$58 -99%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $100 −$98 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY Yes 43¢ $18 19m
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $180 39m
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY Yes 43¢ $7 39m
Nottingham Open: Katie Volynets vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro BUY Katie Volynets 60¢ $61 45m
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 61¢ $125 47m
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 64¢ $131 47m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $117 49m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $56 49m
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $51 50m
Portugal leading at halftime? BUY Yes 58¢ $59 51m
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala BUY Alexandra Eala 41¢ $42 52m
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala BUY Alexandra Eala 38¢ $39 53m
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY illwill 53¢ $107 1h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl BUY XLG Gaming 18¢ $5 19h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Vici Gaming 70¢ $440 19h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner SELL Vici Gaming 76¢ $319 19h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner SELL Vici Gaming 76¢ $125 19h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Vici Gaming 73¢ $63 19h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Vici Gaming 72¢ $64 19h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Vici Gaming 72¢ $296 19h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl BUY XLG Gaming 20¢ $50 19h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl BUY XLG Gaming 26¢ $24 19h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl BUY XLG Gaming 26¢ $42 19h
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet BUY Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard 49¢ $51 19h
HSBC Championships: Jenson Brooksby vs Martin Damm BUY Martin Damm 48¢ $51 19h
Nottingham Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Leylah Fernandez SELL Zeynep Sonmez 98¢ $222 19h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Vici Gaming 59¢ $119 20h
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Marcos Giron SELL Ignacio Buse 99¢ $181 20h
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Marcos Giron BUY Ignacio Buse 18¢ $15 22h
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Refuser 16¢ $32 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,028.94 · official $1,010.96 · 3500 history records