Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T20:43:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
1C 0x1cb9…d00e crypto 1311 markets active 0h ago coverage 124d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$490 (+3%) realized +$490 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR65%break-even
Win rate76%996W / 315L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day13.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$89now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$82
7 days+$104
14 days+$175
30 days+$277
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$424
sports 0% −$34
culture 0% −$8
other 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +65%
net ROI/market (all)-7.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 49 +11.1% +0.5% 71% 71% -1.6%
≤30d 360 +6.8% -3.3% 70% 70% -2.5%
≤90d 587 +2.1% -7.6% 71% 70% -7.4%
all 1311 +1.9% -7.8% 76% 65% -7.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.8% 65% -7.3%
10% -16.6% 51% -16.2%
15% -24.7% 32% -24.3%
20% -32.1% 18% -31.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$12 · ×0.35 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.1 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

124d coverage
Net worth$89
Realized+$490
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses996 / 315
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1311 / 1311
History coverage124d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day13.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1311 Trades
no open positions (227 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 24 $31 +$15 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 24 $31 +$14 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 24 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 24 $31 +$20 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 24 $31 +$13 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 24 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 24 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 24 $31 +$15 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 24 $31 −$30 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 24 $31 +$13 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 24 $31 +$13 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 24 $31 +$16 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 24 $31 +$16 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 24 $31 +$18 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 24 $31 +$24 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 24 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 24 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 24 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 24 $31 −$30 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 24 $31 +$20 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 23 $20 +$10 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 23 $20 +$10 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 23 $20 +$10 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 23 $21 +$12 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 23 $21 +$14 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 23 $21 +$14 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 23 $21 +$12 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 23 $21 +$15 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 22 $21 +$12 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 22 $21 +$15 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 22 $20 +$8 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 22 $20 +$10 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 22 $21 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 22 $20 +$10 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 20 $20 +$10 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 20 $21 +$14 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 20 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 20 $21 +$11 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 19 $20 +$9 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 19 $21 +$12 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 18 $20 +$10 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 18 $20 +$10 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 18 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 18 $20 +$9 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 18 $21 +$13 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 18 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 18 $21 +$16 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 18 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 18 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$5 +45%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $31 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $31 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $31 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $31 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $31 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $31 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $31 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $31 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $31 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $31 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $31 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $31 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $31 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $31 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $31 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $31 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $31 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $31 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $31 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $31 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $20 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $20 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $20 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $21 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $21 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $21 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $21 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $21 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $21 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $21 45h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $89.40 · official $89.40 (match) · 2868 history records