Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T09:16:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1C
0x1cba…6a4c
politics · 148 markets active 235d ago
4.0score
+$753,064 +688%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$753,064 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY politics specialist⚠ High turnover
Chart Positions 0 History 148 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Feb 15 $18 −$18 -100%
Will ICC withdraw its arrest warrant against Netanyahu before July? Oct 20 $508 −$409 -80%
Will 3+ Trump cabinet picks fail to get appointed? Oct 20 $360 +$7,197 +2002%
Will Marcel Ciolacu advance to the Romanian Presidential Election Runo May 23 $37 +$8,278 +22550%
Will Robert Habeck be the next Chancellor of Germany? May 23 $221 +$213 +96%
U.S. recession before May 2025? May 01 $13 −$13 -100%
Fact Check: Is Luigi Mangione gay? May 01 $156 −$156 -100%
Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden in his first 100 days? Apr 30 $4 +$75 +1692%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 30 $56 −$18 -32%
Will Trump pardon Eric Adams in his first 100 days? Apr 30 $870 +$6,832 +785%
Trump ends taxes on tips in first 100 days? Apr 30 $518 +$1,879 +362%
Trump Admin confirms Aliens exist in first 100 days? Apr 30 $6,244 +$27,834 +446%
Will Trump pardon Daniel Penny in his first 100 days? Apr 24 $4 +$918 +23439%
Will Trump pardon Steve Bannon in his first 100 days? Apr 24 $94 −$48 -51%
Will Trump pardon Matt Gaetz in his first 100 days? Apr 24 $157 +$220 +140%
Will Ron DeSantis be a member of the Trump administration? Apr 18 $0 +$1,298 +389878%
Will David Sacks be a member of the Trump administration? Apr 18 $64 +$565 +880%
Will an FBI agent be charged for involvement in Jan 6? Apr 18 $23 +$891 +3845%
Will Ivanka Trump be a member of the Trump administration? Apr 18 $33 −$33 -100%
Will Ben Carson be a member of the Trump administration? Apr 18 $115 −$115 -100%
Will Jared Kushner be a member of the Trump administration? Apr 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Betsy DeVos be a member of the Trump administration? Apr 18 $247 −$247 -100%
Elise Stefanik confirmed as UN ambassador? Apr 18 $17 +$255 +1494%
Eric Adams out as NYC mayor by March 31? Apr 18 $180 +$163 +90%
Mike Huckabee confirmed as ambassador to Israel? Apr 18 $17 +$2,616 +15210%
Will Russia pull out of Syria before April 2025? Mar 13 $60 +$55 +91%
FDA revokes polio vaccine in Trump's first 100 days? Mar 12 $47 −$4 -9%
No change in Fed interest rates after March 2025 meeting? Mar 12 $282 +$4,870 +1725%
Will Elena Lasconi win the Romanian Presidential election by 10% or mo Mar 12 $0 +$67 +50426%
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? Mar 08 $667 +$231 +35%
Will Trump impose large tariffs in his first 6 months? Mar 08 $63 +$163 +260%
Lori Chavez-DeRemer confirmed as Labor Secretary? Mar 08 $2 +$1,253 +75972%
Will Nicolae Ciucă advance to the Romanian Presidential Election Runof Feb 27 $17 +$54 +325%
Jay-Z in jail before April? Feb 27 $3 +$4 +130%
Will Trump pardon himself in his first 100 days? Feb 27 $28 +$155 +560%
Ukraine joins NATO in 2025? Feb 27 $349 +$15 +4%
Nuclear weapon detonation in 2025? Feb 26 $175 +$11 +6%
Will Trump eliminate daylight saving time in first 100 days? Feb 26 $189 +$104 +55%
Trump takes Panama Canal in first 100 days? Feb 26 $6,767 +$14,420 +213%
Will Olaf Scholz be the next Chancellor of Germany? Feb 26 $545 +$18 +3%
Elon Musk out as Head of DOGE before July? Feb 26 $121 +$949 +785%
Will CDU/CSU win the second most seats in the next German election? Feb 26 $8 +$405 +5215%
Will Ken Paxton be Trump's FBI director? Feb 26 $11 −$11 -100%
Will AfD win the most seats in the next German election? Feb 26 $81 +$3,544 +4373%
Will Andrew Bailey be Trump's FBI director? Feb 26 $33 −$33 -100%
Will Kash Patel be Trump's FBI director? Feb 26 $8 +$2,327 +29950%
Kash Patel confirmed as Director of the FBI? Feb 26 $45 +$2,096 +4607%
Solana ETF approved by July 31? Feb 26 $101 +$1,256 +1248%
RFK's daughter-in-law picked as CIA deputy director? Feb 25 $756 +$17 +2%
Will Ben Carson be Trump's HHS Secretary? Feb 15 $153 −$145 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 83% +$533,788
other 14% +$63,824
world 2% +$148,324
economics 0% +$4,857
finance 0% +$101
crypto 0% +$2,205
sports 0% −$18
culture 0% −$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will a new country buy Bitcoin in 2025? SELL Yes 15¢ $8 234d
Will ICC withdraw its arrest warrant against Netanyahu before July? SELL Yes $12 346d
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? SELL Yes 14¢ $16 350d
Will 3+ Trump cabinet picks fail to get appointed? SELL Yes 83¢ $55 370d
Will 3+ Trump cabinet picks fail to get appointed? SELL Yes 83¢ $129 378d
Will 3+ Trump cabinet picks fail to get appointed? SELL Yes 75¢ $250 378d
Will 3+ Trump cabinet picks fail to get appointed? SELL Yes 75¢ $166 378d
Will 3+ Trump cabinet picks fail to get appointed? SELL Yes 74¢ $246 378d
Will 3+ Trump cabinet picks fail to get appointed? SELL Yes 39¢ $130 379d
Will ICC withdraw its arrest warrant against Netanyahu before July? SELL Yes $25 385d
Will ICC withdraw its arrest warrant against Netanyahu before July? SELL Yes 14¢ $31 395d
Will ICC withdraw its arrest warrant against Netanyahu before July? SELL Yes 13¢ $29 395d
Will another candidate win the 2024 Romanian Presidential election? SELL Yes 100¢ $47 408d
Will another candidate win the 2024 Romanian Presidential election? SELL Yes 100¢ $11 408d
Will another candidate win the 2024 Romanian Presidential election? SELL Yes 100¢ $11 408d
Will another candidate win the 2024 Romanian Presidential election? SELL Yes 100¢ $10 408d
Will another candidate win the 2024 Romanian Presidential election? SELL Yes 100¢ $11 408d
Will another candidate win the 2024 Romanian Presidential election? SELL Yes 100¢ $10 408d
Will another candidate win the 2024 Romanian Presidential election? SELL Yes 100¢ $11 408d
Will another candidate win the 2024 Romanian Presidential election? SELL Yes 100¢ $10 408d
Will another candidate win the 2024 Romanian Presidential election? SELL Yes 100¢ $28 409d
Will another candidate win the 2024 Romanian Presidential election? SELL Yes 100¢ $10 409d
Will another candidate win the 2024 Romanian Presidential election? SELL Yes 100¢ $10 409d
Will another candidate win the 2024 Romanian Presidential election? SELL Yes 100¢ $11 409d
Will another candidate win the 2024 Romanian Presidential election? SELL Yes 100¢ $10 409d
Will another candidate win the 2024 Romanian Presidential election? SELL Yes 100¢ $11 409d
Will another candidate win the 2024 Romanian Presidential election? SELL Yes 100¢ $11 409d
Will another candidate win the 2024 Romanian Presidential election? SELL Yes 100¢ $10 409d
OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before July? SELL Yes $7 409d
Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister? SELL Yes 21¢ $46 412d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +71%
net ROI/market (all)+649.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d no closed markets
all 148 +728.5% +649.6% 79% 71% +225.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover11.6 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +649.6% 71% +225.4%
10% ← realistic here +577.9% 66% +194.3%
15% +512.4% 63% +165.8%
20% +452.4% 61% +139.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records