Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T02:47:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1C 0x1cbb…3ec7 sports 11 markets active 0h ago coverage 16d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$386 (-39%) realized −$257 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip
Net edge+4%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate60%6W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$91per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$31now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$203
7 days+$203
14 days−$98
30 days−$257
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 81% −$398
other 19% +$138
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)+4.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +57.1% +42.1% 83% 83% +36.6%
≤30d 10 +15.1% +4.1% 60% 60% -33.8%
≤90d 10 +15.1% +4.1% 60% 60% -33.8%
all 10 +15.1% +4.1% 60% 60% -33.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +4.1% 60% -33.8%
10% -5.8% 60% -40.1%
15% -14.9% 60% -45.9%
20% -23.3% 60% -51.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 45% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -27% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +15% · $-wt -27% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$49 vs −$137 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$31
Realized−$257
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses6 / 4
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions1
Markets (closed)10 / 11
History coverage16d
Avg bet$91
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Viktor Gyökeres: 1+ goals Yes 41¢ 36¢ $35 $31 −$4 (-11%)
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 212.5 Over 60¢ 0¢ $98 $0 −$98 (-100%)
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 209.5 Over 66¢ 0¢ $58 $0 −$58 (-100%)
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 213.5 Over 62¢ 0¢ $204 $0 −$204 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Alexander Isak: 1+ goals Jun 15 $34 +$57 +170%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $94 +$74 +79%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $76 +$43 +57%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 209.5 Jun 14 $59 −$58 -99%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $89 +$45 +51%
Breel Embolo: 1+ goals Jun 13 $48 +$41 +86%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 212.5 Jun 05 $99 −$98 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 213.5 Jun 03 $206 −$204 -99%
Spread: Thunder (-3.5) May 31 $34 +$32 +93%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 8.5 Total Corners May 30 $224 −$190 -85%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Alexander Isak: 1+ goals SELL Yes 99¢ $91 11m
Viktor Gyökeres: 1+ goals BUY Yes 41¢ $36 1h
Alexander Isak: 1+ goals BUY Yes 36¢ $34 1h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 7.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $169 1h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 55¢ $94 3h
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 209.5 BUY Over 66¢ $59 26h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $76 26h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 7.5 Total Corners SELL Over 99¢ $134 26h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 65¢ $89 30h
Breel Embolo: 1+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $89 30h
Breel Embolo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 53¢ $48 32h
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 212.5 BUY Over 60¢ $99 9d
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 213.5 BUY Over 62¢ $206 11d
Spread: Thunder (-3.5) BUY Spurs 51¢ $34 15d
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 9¢ $34 15d
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 59¢ $224 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.16 · official $31.16 (match) · 18 history records