Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T16:00:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
1C 0x1cbf…8618 sports 123 markets active 1h ago coverage 38d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$48 (+10%) realized +$48 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate60%69W / 46L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day3.8pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$8
7 days+$67
14 days+$54
30 days+$54
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 86% +$60
crypto 14% −$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-1.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 57 +32.6% +20.0% 70% 70% +22.3%
≤30d 95 +11.9% +1.3% 59% 59% +3.9%
≤90d 115 +9.1% -1.3% 60% 56% -0.3%
all 115 +9.1% -1.3% 60% 56% -0.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.3% 56% -0.3%
10% -10.7% 52% -9.8%
15% -19.4% 51% -18.5%
20% -27.3% 49% -26.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late +30% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$4 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.26 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

38d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized+$48
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses69 / 46
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions8
Markets (closed)115 / 123
History coverage38d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day3.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 115 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Tampa Bay Rays 39¢ 38¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-1%)
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Los Angeles Angels 46¢ 46¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Cincinnati Reds 56¢ 56¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+1%)
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals St. Louis Cardinals 59¢ 58¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Washington Nationals 56¢ 55¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-3%)
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Houston Astros 55¢ 52¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-5%)
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Detroit Tigers 51¢ 52¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+3%)
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees New York Yankees 54¢ 53¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 44 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 15 $3 +$3 +90%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 14 $3 +$2 +79%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 14 $3 +$2 +79%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 14 $6 +$10 +172%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 14 $2 +$3 +124%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 14 $3 −$3 -99%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 14 $2 +$2 +90%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 14 $3 +$2 +65%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 14 $3 +$3 +97%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 13 $3 +$2 +86%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 13 $3 +$3 +86%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 13 $3 +$3 +105%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $3 +$2 +90%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 13 $4 −$4 -99%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 13 $6 −$6 -99%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 13 $6 −$6 -99%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 13 $4 −$4 -98%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 13 $2 +$1 +50%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 13 $4 +$3 +76%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 13 $6 +$4 +73%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 13 $5 +$5 +97%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 13 $4 +$3 +79%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 13 $6 +$2 +44%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 12 $4 −$4 -99%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 12 $4 −$4 -98%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 12 $3 −$3 -99%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 11 $6 +$6 +86%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 11 $2 −$2 -99%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 11 $3 −$3 -98%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 11 $2 +$2 +90%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 11 $6 +$6 +97%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 11 $2 +$3 +146%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 11 $7 +$6 +76%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 11 $3 +$3 +97%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 10 $4 +$2 +62%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 10 $3 +$2 +67%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 10 $1 −$1 -99%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 10 $5 +$4 +83%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 10 $3 +$3 +97%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 10 $3 +$3 +93%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 10 $1 +$2 +109%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 10 $2 +$2 +105%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 10 $4 +$3 +79%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 10 $2 +$2 +93%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets Jun 10 $2 +$2 +109%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Tampa Bay Rays 39¢ $7 1h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Los Angeles Angels 46¢ $4 1h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Houston Astros 55¢ $3 1h
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY St. Louis Cardinals 59¢ $4 1h
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Cincinnati Reds 56¢ $4 1h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 56¢ $4 1h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Tampa Bay Rays 52¢ $3 24h
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants BUY San Francisco Giants 55¢ $3 24h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Chicago White Sox 36¢ $6 24h
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets BUY Atlanta Braves 47¢ $3 24h
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY Detroit Tigers 51¢ $3 24h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Cincinnati Reds 49¢ $2 24h
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY New York Yankees 55¢ $3 24h
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals BUY Seattle Mariners 55¢ $3 24h
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY San Diego Padres 44¢ $2 24h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Los Angeles Angels 50¢ $3 47h
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants BUY Chicago Cubs 52¢ $2 47h
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 60¢ $3 47h
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Milwaukee Brewers 61¢ $4 47h
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Kansas City Royals 54¢ $6 47h
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets BUY Atlanta Braves 48¢ $3 47h
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 53¢ $3 47h
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY Detroit Tigers 56¢ $6 47h
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Miami Marlins 49¢ $1 47h
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 53¢ $3 47h
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY New York Yankees 52¢ $3 47h
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins BUY Minnesota Twins 49¢ $4 47h
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants BUY San Francisco Giants 53¢ $4 3d
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 66¢ $2 3d
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins BUY Minnesota Twins 56¢ $4 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.73 · official $29.73 (match) · 218 history records