Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T13:08:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
1C 0x1cc1…1c93 world 13 markets active 1h ago coverage 77d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$43 (-2%) realized −$43 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate31%4W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$180per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 60% +$4
sports 31% −$42
other 10% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-30.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.3% -9.2% 50% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 3 +0.2% -9.3% 33% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 13 -22.7% -30.1% 31% 0% -11.2%
all 13 -22.7% -30.1% 31% 0% -11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -30.1% 0% -11.2%
10% -36.8% 0% -19.7%
15% -42.9% 0% -27.5%
20% -48.5% 0% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 67% · top 2 86% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late -29% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$11 · ×0.97 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.49 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

77d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$43
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses4 / 9
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)13 / 13
History coverage77d
Avg bet$180
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 13 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 30? Jun 22 $347 +$4 +1%
Will Russia capture all of Prymorske by September 30, 2026? Jun 22 $342 −$1 -0%
Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $227 $0 +0%
Spread: IK Start (-1.5) May 16 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by June 30, 2026? May 16 $21 +$2 +9%
Spread: Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC (-2.5) May 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by June 30, 2026? May 15 $33 −$5 -15%
Spread: El Gouna SC (-2.5) May 12 $49 −$49 -100%
Will any country leave NATO by June 30, 2026? May 12 $17 $0 -0%
Spread: FC Hermannstadt (-2.5) May 05 $444 +$28 +6%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 04 $443 $0 -0%
Spread: Udinese Calcio (-1.5) Apr 08 $198 +$8 +4%
Will the US strike 15 or more countries in 2026? Apr 06 $191 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $350 49m
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $347 1h
Will Russia capture all of Prymorske by September 30, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $341 1h
Will Russia capture all of Prymorske by September 30, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $342 3h
Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $227 7d
Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $227 7d
Spread: IK Start (-1.5) BUY IK Start $7 37d
Spread: IK Start (-1.5) BUY IK Start $7 37d
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $12 37d
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $12 37d
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $11 37d
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $10 37d
Spread: Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC (-2.5) BUY Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC $7 38d
Spread: Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC (-2.5) BUY Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC $8 38d
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $13 38d
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $14 38d
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $16 38d
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $16 38d
Spread: El Gouna SC (-2.5) BUY El Gouna SC $25 41d
Spread: El Gouna SC (-2.5) BUY El Gouna SC $24 41d
Will any country leave NATO by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $0 41d
Will any country leave NATO by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $0 41d
Will any country leave NATO by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $7 41d
Will any country leave NATO by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $9 41d
Will any country leave NATO by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $2 41d
Will any country leave NATO by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $9 41d
Will any country leave NATO by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $8 41d
Spread: FC Hermannstadt (-2.5) BUY AFC Unirea Slobozia 94¢ $444 49d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $347 49d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $95 49d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 39 history records