Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:18:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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1C 0x1cc1…a345 weather 458 markets active 1h ago coverage 16d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 16d only
✗ bot/MM pace (198 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$741 (+1%) realized +$738 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate93%413W / 31L
Whale WR96%big bets
Drawdown4%max
Avg bet$222per market
Trades / day197.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1,507now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$25
7 days+$83
14 days+$127
30 days+$2,080
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$2,095
tech 0% −$11
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (198 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-7.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 212 +0.2% -9.3% 95% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 444 +2.4% -7.3% 93% 0% -7.6%
≤90d 444 +2.4% -7.3% 93% 0% -7.6%
all 444 +2.4% -7.3% 93% 0% -7.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover197.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.3% 0% -7.6%
10% ← realistic here -16.2% 0% -16.5%
15% -24.3% 0% -24.5%
20% -31.7% 0% -31.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 87% · top 2 88% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 96% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +5% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$3 · ×1.55 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×20.64 per $1 lost it wins $20.64
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$1,507
Realized+$738
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)93%
Wins / losses413 / 31
Whale WR (big bets)96%
Open positions14
Markets (closed)444 / 458
History coverage16d ⚠
Avg bet$222
Trades / day197.9
Drawdown4%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 444 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 19°C on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $267 $267 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 17°C or below on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $266 $266 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C or below on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $199 $200 +$1 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 20°C on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $197 $198 +$1 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 18? No 100¢ 100¢ $167 $167 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C or below on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $100 $100 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 18? No 100¢ 100¢ $95 $95 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C or below on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $80 $80 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 33°C or higher on June 18? No 100¢ 100¢ $62 $62 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 19°C or below on June 18? No 100¢ 100¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 15°C on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 19°C or below on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $13 $13 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 23°C or below on June 18? No 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C or below on June 18? No 100¢ 100¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 42°C or higher on June 18? Jun 17 $188 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 18? Jun 17 $200 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C or below on June 18? Jun 17 $796 +$3 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 86-87°F on June 16? Jun 17 $745 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 18°C or below on June 1 Jun 17 $311 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 19°C or below on June 1 Jun 17 $199 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 20°C on June 16? Jun 17 $25 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 84-85°F on June 17? Jun 17 $99 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 13°C or below on June 17? Jun 17 $199 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 69°F or below on June Jun 17 $110 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on June 16? Jun 17 $402 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 16? Jun 17 $497 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C or below on June 16? Jun 17 $498 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C or higher on June 16? Jun 16 $158 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $255 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C or higher on June 16? Jun 16 $554 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $378 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 24°C or higher on June 16 Jun 16 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C on June 16? Jun 16 $123 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C or higher on June 16? Jun 16 $554 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 16? Jun 16 $554 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $183 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 31°C or higher on June 16? Jun 16 $221 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 21°C or below on June 16? Jun 16 $219 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C or below on June 16? Jun 16 $63 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 33°C on June 16? Jun 16 $40 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 13°C on June 16? Jun 16 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 12°C or below on June 16? Jun 16 $102 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C on June 16? Jun 16 $372 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 36°C on June 16? Jun 16 $408 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $15 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $377 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 88°F or higher on June 16? Jun 16 $465 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 88°F or higher on June 15? Jun 16 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 16 $152 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 16 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on June 15? Jun 16 $213 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on June 15? Jun 16 $89 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 84°F or higher on June 15? Jun 16 $212 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 16 $57 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 16 $126 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 15? Jun 16 $473 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 15? Jun 16 $213 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 15? Jun 16 $137 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 15? Jun 16 $22 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C or higher on June 15? Jun 16 $201 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 15? Jun 16 $33 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C or below on June 15? Jun 16 $302 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 15? Jun 15 $22 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $12 1h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $18 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 42°C or higher on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $114 1h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $53 1h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $197 1h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 17°C or below on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $66 2h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 17°C or below on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $199 2h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $7 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C or below on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $7 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $8 2h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $4 2h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $10 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $10 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $7 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $10 2h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $7 3h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $9 3h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $7 3h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $6 3h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $10 3h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $6 4h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $9 4h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $3 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,507.44 · official $1,507.44 (match) · 3500 history records