Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T16:31:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1C 0x1cca…181b politics 75 markets active 2h ago coverage 627d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$17 (-0%) realized −$17 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate3%2W / 73L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$226per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 61% −$11
other 27% −$3
economics 12% −$2
world 0% $0
sports 0% $0
tech 0% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 4 -0.6% -10.1% 0% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 11 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
all 75 -1.8% -11.1% 3% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.1% 0% -9.6%
10% -19.6% 0% -18.3%
15% -27.4% 0% -26.2%
20% -34.5% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -3% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
0.8 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.12 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.05 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

627d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)3%
Wins / losses2 / 73
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)75 / 75
History coverage627d
Avg bet$226
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 75 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $58 $0 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $59 −$1 -2%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 26 $59 $0 -0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 20 $59 $0 -0%
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 17 $59 $0 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? May 13 $59 $0 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? May 09 $59 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 16 $60 $0 +0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 11 $60 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 09 $60 $0 +0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 07 $60 $0 +0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 17 $60 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 13 $60 $0 +0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 12 $60 $0 +0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 10 $61 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 08 $61 $0 +0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 04 $60 $0 +0%
Will Grok 4.20 be released on January 26, 2026? Feb 06 $58 +$1 +2%
Will Damien Martinez record the most rushing yards by a rookie running Nov 24 $58 $0 -0%
Will RB Leipzig win the Bundesliga? Jan 28 $2 $0 +0%
Will Karl-Anthony Towns lead the NBA in Rebounds? Jan 28 $2 $0 +0%
Will Jayson Tatum lead the NBA in scoring? Jan 28 $2 $0 +0%
Will Clint Capela lead the NBA in Rebounds? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Will Cole Palmer be the top goalscorer in the EPL? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Will Leicester City be relegated? Jan 28 $4 $0 +0%
Will Villarreal CF win La Liga? Jan 27 $4 $0 +0%
Will Garrett Wilson be the top Fantasy Wide Receiver? Jan 27 $2 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "Kamala" during his inauguration speech? Jan 27 $3 $0 +0%
Will America ban Zyn in 2024? Jan 27 $3 $0 +0%
Will Josh Jacobs be the top Fantasy Running Back? Jan 27 $3 $0 +0%
Will five or more SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach outer sp Jan 27 $3 $0 +0%
Will 'Despicable Me 4' gross most in 2024? Jan 27 $1,976 −$2 -0%
Supreme Court term limits in 2024? Jan 27 $4 $0 +0%
Will Tom Emmer be the first elected Speaker of the House for the 119th Jan 27 $4 $0 +0%
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the AFC North? Jan 27 $4 $0 +0%
Will Oleg Gaidukevich win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election? Dec 19 $1 $0 -1%
Will 'Mufasa: The Lion King' gross between $64-70m on 3-day opening we Dec 19 $1 $0 -1%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Dec 19 $0 $0 -1%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the AFC South? Dec 19 $2 $0 +0%
Will Luca Doncic lead the NBA in scoring? Dec 10 $1 $0 -1%
No Marco Rubio replacement as Florida senator? Dec 10 $1 $0 -1%
Will Romuald Starosielec be the next President of Poland? Dec 10 $0 $0 -0%
Will Nebraska win the 2025 College Football Playoff? Dec 10 $2 $0 +0%
Hunter Biden sentenced to 6-11 months in gun case? Dec 10 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Jaguars win Super Bowl 2025? Dec 10 $3 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,250 in November? Dec 10 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Titans win Super Bowl 2025? Dec 10 $3 $0 +0%
Will Gallego win Arizona Senate election by 3% or more? Nov 25 $1 $0 -0%
Will Dragan Primorac be the next President of Croatia? Nov 25 $1 $0 -3%
Will Justin Jefferson win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season? Nov 25 $1 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $58 1h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $58 13h
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $58 13d
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $59 13d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $59 22d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $59 23d
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $59 29d
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $11 29d
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $48 29d
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $59 32d
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $12 32d
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1 32d
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $46 32d
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $59 36d
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $59 37d
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $59 39d
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $59 40d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $60 63d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $8 64d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $52 64d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $60 67d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $60 68d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $60 70d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $60 70d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $60 72d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $60 72d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $60 93d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $60 94d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $60 96d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $60 97d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 169 history records