Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T17:32:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
1C 0x1cce…f65f crypto 50 markets active 2h ago coverage 533d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$6 (-0%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate65%32W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$135per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$66now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 87% −$5
crypto 7% +$1
politics 3% $0
tech 2% +$1
sports 1% −$3
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 6 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.3%
all 49 -0.4% -9.9% 65% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.5% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.4% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.17 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.32 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

533d coverage
Net worth$66
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses32 / 17
Open positions1
Markets (closed)49 / 50
History coverage533d
Avg bet$135
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 49 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will XRP reach $3.00 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $66 $66 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? Jun 03 $12 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $38 in May? Jun 03 $47 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $140 in April? May 05 $22 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $0.80 in April? May 05 $34 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in March? Apr 02 $22 $0 +0%
Will Chainlink reach $20 in March? Apr 02 $38 $0 +0%
Will BNB reach $1,200 in February? Mar 03 $17 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid reach $44 in February? Mar 03 $31 $0 +0%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Feb 01 $15 $0 +0%
Will BNB reach $1100 in January? Feb 01 $41 $0 +0%
XRP all time high by December 31? Jan 01 $11 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid hit $70 in 2025? Jan 01 $40 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $250 in November? Dec 03 $9 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of November 2025? Dec 03 $47 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $135k in October? Nov 03 $50 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $2400 in September? Oct 04 $15 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $4.00 in September? Oct 04 $32 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $155 in August? Sep 01 $6 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $150 in August? Sep 01 $10 $0 +0%
Will Google have the top AI model on August 31? Sep 01 $42 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2025 meeting? Aug 03 $13 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $140K in July? Aug 03 $19 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.9 in July? Aug 03 $27 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.7 in June? Jul 03 $46 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $85k in May? Jun 22 $8 $0 +0%
XRP all time high in May? Jun 22 $12 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in May? Jun 22 $15 $0 +0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2025? Apr 29 $5,595 −$6 -0%
Will another party win the most seats in Saskatchewan in the next Cana Apr 18 $21 $0 -0%
Will the Greens win the most seats in the next Australian parliamentar Apr 18 $35 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2025? Apr 16 $26 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Elon Musk in his first 100 days? Apr 16 $28 $0 -0%
Will another party win the second most seats in the next Canadian elec Apr 13 $24 $0 -0%
Will Solana dip to $100 by March? Apr 02 $7 $0 +1%
XRP all time high by March 31? Apr 02 $8 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high by March 31? Apr 02 $10 $0 +0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Mar 15 $30 $0 -0%
Will Justin Trudeau be the next Canadian Prime Minister? Mar 14 $13 $0 -0%
Will Texas win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? Mar 10 $27 $0 -0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Februa Mar 03 $33 +$1 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by January 31, 2025? Feb 21 $12 $0 +0%
Brighton & Hove Albion wins the Premier League? Feb 20 $15 $0 -0%
Will Agnieszka Dziemianowicz-Bąk be the next President of Poland? Feb 19 $16 $0 -0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the Western Conference? Feb 16 $14 $0 -0%
Will the Utah Jazz win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jan 22 $10 −$2 -25%
Will another player win NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year? Jan 11 $15 $0 -0%
Will another party win the second most seats in the next German electi Jan 11 $16 $0 -0%
Will Anna Kanopatskaya win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election? Jan 11 $23 $0 -0%
Will Stuttgart win the Bundesliga? Jan 10 $17 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will XRP reach $3.00 in June? BUY No 100¢ $66 1h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? BUY No 100¢ $12 29d
Will Hyperliquid dip to $38 in May? BUY No 100¢ $47 29d
Will Solana reach $140 in April? BUY No 100¢ $22 62d
Will XRP dip to $0.80 in April? BUY No 100¢ $34 62d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $22 91d
Will Chainlink reach $20 in March? BUY No 100¢ $38 92d
Will BNB reach $1,200 in February? BUY No 100¢ $17 121d
Will Hyperliquid reach $44 in February? BUY No 100¢ $31 121d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $15 149d
Will BNB reach $1100 in January? BUY No 100¢ $41 150d
XRP all time high by December 31? BUY No 100¢ $11 181d
Will Hyperliquid hit $70 in 2025? BUY No 100¢ $40 182d
Will Solana reach $250 in November? BUY No 100¢ $9 211d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of November 2025? BUY No 100¢ $47 211d
Will Bitcoin reach $135k in October? BUY No 100¢ $23 240d
Will Bitcoin reach $135k in October? BUY No 99¢ $28 243d
Will Ethereum dip to $2400 in September? BUY No 100¢ $15 271d
Will XRP reach $4.00 in September? BUY No 100¢ $32 273d
Will Solana dip to $155 in August? BUY No 100¢ $6 300d
Will Solana dip to $150 in August? BUY No 100¢ $10 300d
Will Google have the top AI model on August 31? BUY Yes 100¢ $42 302d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2025 meeting? BUY No 100¢ $13 333d
Will Bitcoin reach $140K in July? BUY No 100¢ $19 333d
Will XRP dip to $1.9 in July? BUY No 100¢ $27 334d
Will XRP dip to $1.7 in June? BUY No 100¢ $18 362d
Will XRP dip to $1.7 in June? BUY No 100¢ $28 364d
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in May? BUY No 100¢ $15 395d
XRP all time high in May? BUY No 100¢ $12 395d
Will Bitcoin dip to $85k in May? BUY No 100¢ $8 395d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $66.06 · official $66.06 (match) · 102 history records