Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T08:06:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
1C 0x1cd0…91df other 96 markets active 1h ago coverage 763d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$7 (-0%) realized −$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate87%83W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$161per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit22%portable
Net worth$365now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 85% −$13
politics 5% +$1
economics 5% $0
crypto 4% +$5
tech 1% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-18.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 1 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 3 +0.4% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.2%
all 95 -9.6% -18.2% 87% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.2% 0% -9.6%
10% -26.1% 0% -18.2%
15% -33.2% 0% -26.1%
20% -39.8% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$8 · ×0.13 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

763d coverage
Net worth$365
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)87%
Wins / losses83 / 12
Open positions1
Markets (closed)95 / 96
History coverage763d
Avg bet$161
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit22%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 95 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting? No 100¢ 100¢ $365 $365 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m Jun 26 $365 $0 +0%
Genius FDV above $1B one day after launch? Apr 17 $361 +$4 +1%
EdgeX FDV above $10B one day after launch? Apr 13 $361 $0 +0%
Backpack FDV above $100M one day after launch? Mar 27 $357 +$4 +1%
Will Opinion launch a token by December 31, 2026? Mar 15 $352 +$5 +1%
Tria FDV above $500M one day after launch? Feb 18 $351 +$1 +0%
Zama FDV above $4B one day after launch? Feb 04 $344 +$7 +2%
Fogo FDV above $3B one day after launch? Jan 20 $343 +$2 +0%
Rainbow FDV above $200M one day after launch? Jan 14 $341 +$2 +0%
Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31? Dec 31 $317 +$24 +8%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from November 11 to November 18, 20 Dec 27 $102 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,900 on November 19? Dec 27 $214 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from November 4 to November 11, 202 Nov 18 $102 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from October 21 to October 28, 2025? Nov 10 $21 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from October 21 to October 28, 2025? Nov 10 $80 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from September 23 to September 30, 202 Oct 20 $101 $0 +0%
Will Trump’s approval rating be <43.5% on September 5? Sep 22 $101 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 420–434 times August 22–August 29? Sep 06 $30 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 435–449 times August 22–August 29? Sep 06 $30 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 405–419 times August 22–August 29? Sep 06 $41 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $165 on August 18–24? Aug 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Solana dip to $160 on August 18–24? Aug 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon tweet 210–239 times August 8–August 15? Aug 25 $104 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet less than 90 times July 11–18? Aug 11 $104 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 240–254 times July 4–11? Jul 14 $14 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 255–269 times July 4–11? Jul 14 $40 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 270 or more times July 4–11? Jul 14 $50 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 280–294 times June 20–27? Jul 10 $10 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 265–279 times June 20–27? Jul 10 $10 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 295 or more times June 20–27? Jul 10 $10 $0 +0%
Aleo airdrop in Q2 2025? Jul 10 $10 $0 +0%
Avail airdrop in Q2 2025? Jul 10 $10 $0 +0%
Farcaster airdrop in Q2 2025? Jul 10 $10 $0 +0%
Rabby airdrop in Q2 2025? Jul 10 $10 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 100–114 times June 20–27? Jul 10 $10 $0 +1%
Pump.fun airdrop in Q2 2025? Jul 10 $10 $0 +1%
MetaMask airdrop in Q2 2025? Jul 10 $13 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet less than 100 times June 13–20? Jun 25 $23 $0 +0%
Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin June 10-16? Jun 25 $30 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet 400 or more times April 11–18? Jun 16 $10 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 350–374 times April 11–18? Jun 16 $10 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 325–349 times April 11–18? Jun 16 $10 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet 300–324 times April 11–18? Jun 16 $11 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet 375–399 times April 11–18? Jun 16 $12 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet less than 300 times March 21-28? Apr 15 $10 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 325-349 times March 21-28? Apr 15 $10 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 350-374 times March 21-28? Apr 15 $10 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet 650 or more times March 21-28? Apr 15 $10 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet 300-324 times March 21-28? Apr 15 $12 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 550-574 times March 14-21? Mar 25 $10 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $365 1h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m BUY No 100¢ $365 70d
Genius FDV above $1B one day after launch? BUY No 99¢ $361 74d
EdgeX FDV above $10B one day after launch? BUY No 100¢ $361 90d
Backpack FDV above $100M one day after launch? BUY Yes 99¢ $357 102d
Will Opinion launch a token by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $352 127d
Tria FDV above $500M one day after launch? BUY No 100¢ $351 142d
Zama FDV above $4B one day after launch? BUY No 98¢ $344 156d
Fogo FDV above $3B one day after launch? BUY No 100¢ $343 163d
Rainbow FDV above $200M one day after launch? BUY No 100¢ $341 177d
Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31? BUY Yes 93¢ $317 180d
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from November 11 to November 18, 20 BUY No 100¢ $102 219d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,900 on November 19? BUY No 100¢ $214 220d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from November 4 to November 11, 202 BUY No 100¢ $102 228d
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from October 21 to October 28, 2025? BUY No 100¢ $21 248d
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from October 21 to October 28, 2025? BUY No 100¢ $80 248d
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from September 23 to September 30, 202 BUY No 100¢ $101 277d
Will Trump’s approval rating be <43.5% on September 5? BUY No 100¢ $101 293d
Will Elon tweet 405–419 times August 22–August 29? BUY No 100¢ $41 305d
Will Elon tweet 420–434 times August 22–August 29? BUY No 100¢ $30 305d
Will Elon tweet 435–449 times August 22–August 29? BUY No 100¢ $30 305d
Will Solana dip to $165 on August 18–24? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 305d
Will Solana dip to $160 on August 18–24? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 305d
Will Elon tweet 210–239 times August 8–August 15? BUY No 100¢ $104 318d
Will Elon tweet less than 90 times July 11–18? BUY No 100¢ $54 347d
Will Elon tweet less than 90 times July 11–18? BUY No 100¢ $50 347d
Will Elon tweet 240–254 times July 4–11? BUY No 100¢ $14 351d
Will Elon tweet 255–269 times July 4–11? BUY No 100¢ $40 351d
Will Elon tweet 270 or more times July 4–11? BUY No 100¢ $50 351d
MetaMask airdrop in Q2 2025? BUY No 100¢ $13 366d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $364.82 · official $364.82 (match) · 194 history records