Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T11:01:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
1C 0x1cd2…73bd other 124 markets active 1h ago coverage 134d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$32 (-0%) realized −$32 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate11%14W / 108L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$257per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$74now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% −$33
politics 29% −$10
sports 10% +$12
crypto 5% −$1
economics 4% −$1
world 2% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 2 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 76 -0.1% -9.6% 5% 0% -9.6%
all 122 -1.5% -10.9% 11% 5% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.9% 5% -9.6%
10% -19.4% 4% -18.3%
15% -27.2% 2% -26.2%
20% -34.3% 1% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
57% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -3% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$1 · ×4.96 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

134d coverage
Net worth$74
Realized−$32
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses14 / 108
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)122 / 124
History coverage134d
Avg bet$257
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 122 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $38 $38 −$0 (-0%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,500 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $36 $36 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 24 $404 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 19 $252 $0 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 25 $205 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 16 $642 −$1 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 07 $195 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 05 $257 $0 -0%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch? May 05 $4 $0 +1%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 05 $264 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 04 $442 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $460 −$1 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 03 $398 $0 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 03 $255 $0 -0%
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 02 $239 $0 -0%
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 01 $186 $0 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $232 $0 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 30 $192 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $264 −$1 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 29 $685 −$1 -0%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 27 $741 −$1 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 27 $254 $0 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 27 $222 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $477 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 26 $201 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 26 $227 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 26 $474 $0 -0%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 24 $183 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 22 $189 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $460 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 21 $655 −$1 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $409 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 20 $41 $0 +1%
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 20 $169 $0 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 19 $179 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $1,074 −$1 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $160 $0 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $222 $0 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 18 $203 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 17 $167 $0 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 17 $355 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in April? Apr 16 $221 $0 -0%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $184 $0 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $179 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 15 $638 −$1 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $754 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 15 $388 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 14 $195 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? Apr 14 $185 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 13 $427 $0 -0%
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 13 $191 $0 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 13 $163 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ethereum reach $2,500 in June? BUY No 100¢ $36 1h
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in June? BUY No 100¢ $38 1h
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $29 22h
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $29 4d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $252 5d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $252 20d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $205 31d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $205 32d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $219 40d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $219 42d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $195 49d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $195 50d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $257 50d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $257 51d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $264 51d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $264 51d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $192 51d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $192 52d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $203 52d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $203 52d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $192 53d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $192 53d
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL No 100¢ $255 53d
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY No 100¢ $255 53d
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $239 53d
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $239 54d
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $186 54d
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $186 55d
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $232 55d
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $232 55d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $73.96 · official $73.96 (match) · 387 history records