Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T12:00:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1C
0x1cd2…7f85
finance · 75 markets active 21h ago
7.0score
+$90,804 +36%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$80,867 · open +$9,937
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP finance specialist
✓ In copytrade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$41,937
Realized+$80,867
Unrealized+$9,937
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses26 / 43
Whale WR (big bets)72%
Open positions6
Markets (closed)69 / 75
Avg bet$3,359
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown12%
Kalshi-fit89%
Chart Positions 6 History 69 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,000
7 days−$1,000
14 days+$15,105
30 days+$14,650
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? No 60¢ 73¢ $20,000 $24,528 +$4,528 (+23%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? No 41¢ 80¢ $3,000 $5,955 +$2,955 (+98%)
Bitcoin all time high by September 30, 2026? No 66¢ 97¢ $4,000 $5,859 +$1,859 (+46%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 17¢ $2,000 $2,067 +$67 (+3%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $2,000 $1,877 −$123 (-6%)
Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026? No 56¢ 92¢ $1,000 $1,652 +$652 (+65%)
Will Samsara (IOT) beat quarterly earnings? No 11¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
US government shutdown Saturday? No 26¢ 0¢ $23 $0 −$23 (-100%)
Will CrowdStrike Holdings (CRWD) beat quarterly earnings? No 10¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $200 $0 −$200 (-100%)
Will Dollar Tree (DLTR) beat quarterly earnings? No 28¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Build-A-Bear Workshop (BBW) beat quarterly earnings? No 23¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Woodward (WWD) beat quarterly earnings? No 14¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? No 9¢ 0¢ $1,500 $0 −$1,500 (-100%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in April? Yes 53¢ 0¢ $97 $0 −$97 (-100%)
Will Alireza Arafi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Yes 49¢ 0¢ $1,000 $0 −$1,000 (-100%)
Will DocuSign (DOCU) beat quarterly earnings? No 12¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Reza Pahlavi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? No 31¢ 0¢ $800 $0 −$800 (-100%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in May? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $176 $0 −$176 (-100%)
Will Kroger (KR) beat quarterly earnings? No 16¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Salesforce (CRM) beat quarterly earnings? No 13¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Semtech (SMTC) beat quarterly earnings? No 14¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Gold close between $4000 and $4100 at the end of 2025? Yes 13¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Snowflake (SNOW) beat quarterly earnings? No 15¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $205 −$200 -97%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $817 −$800 -98%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? May 30 $10,083 +$2,552 +25%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May? May 30 $14,060 +$5,449 +39%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? May 30 $30,254 +$8,104 +27%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 28 $4,800 +$1,270 +26%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in May? May 28 $187 −$176 -94%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May? May 18 $2,571 −$1,549 -60%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April? May 01 $50,000 +$23,647 +47%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April? May 01 $10,000 +$7,922 +79%
Will United Natural Foods (UNFI) beat quarterly earnings? Apr 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Okta (OKTA) beat quarterly earnings? Apr 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Asana (ASAN) beat quarterly earnings? Apr 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Will MongoDB (MDB) beat quarterly earnings? Apr 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF) beat quarterly earnings? Apr 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Best Buy (BBY) beat quarterly earnings? Apr 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Analog Devices (ADI) beat quarterly earnings? Apr 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Burlington Stores (BURL) beat quarterly earnings? Apr 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in April? Apr 02 $100 −$97 -97%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of March? Apr 01 $2,000 +$1,341 +67%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in March? Apr 01 $10,000 +$6,953 +70%
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 09 $1,500 +$599 +40%
Will Reza Pahlavi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 02 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Alireza Arafi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 01 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,500 by end of February? Feb 28 $3,000 +$1,552 +52%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Feb 28 $1,500 −$1,500 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in February? Feb 25 $20,000 +$2,078 +10%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in January? Feb 01 $43,500 +$33,805 +78%
Will Bitcoin hit $80k or $100k first? Feb 01 $200 +$314 +157%
Will Bitcoin dip to $85,000 in January? Jan 28 $10,000 −$10,000 -100%
US government shutdown Saturday? Jan 27 $23 −$23 -100%
Will Bitcoin hit $80k or $150k first? Jan 04 $100 +$5 +5%
Aster all time high by December 31? Jan 01 $100 +$30 +30%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 01 $500 +$225 +45%
Will Bitcoin hit $80k or $100k first? Jan 01 $1,500 +$305 +20%
Will Zcash hit $1000 by December 31? Jan 01 $300 +$138 +46%
Will DICK'S Sporting Goods (DKS) beat quarterly earnings? Nov 29 $5 +$58 +1164%
Will The J. M. Smucker (SJM) beat quarterly earnings? Nov 26 $5 +$37 +733%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on November 21? Nov 25 $20 +$22 +108%
Will DocuSign (DOCU) beat quarterly earnings? Nov 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Samsara (IOT) beat quarterly earnings? Nov 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Rubrik (RBRK) beat quarterly earnings? Nov 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE) beat quarterly earnings? Nov 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Victoria's Secret (VSCO) beat quarterly earnings? Nov 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Salesforce (CRM) beat quarterly earnings? Nov 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Snowflake (SNOW) beat quarterly earnings? Nov 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Build-A-Bear Workshop (BBW) beat quarterly earnings? Nov 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Kroger (KR) beat quarterly earnings? Nov 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Will CrowdStrike Holdings (CRWD) beat quarterly earnings? Nov 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Dollar Tree (DLTR) beat quarterly earnings? Nov 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
finance 48% +$51,825
crypto 46% +$39,070
other 3% +$654
world 3% +$769
economics 1% −$1,500
politics 0% −$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 11¢ $205 21h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY No 31¢ $817 21h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY No 61¢ $10,273 21h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY No 59¢ $10,288 8d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? BUY No 30¢ $1,028 8d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $2,050 9d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $2,050 9d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? BUY No 54¢ $1,018 12d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? BUY No 46¢ $1,022 12d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 65¢ $6,070 15d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in May? BUY Yes 8¢ $187 15d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 50¢ $3,000 17d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 54¢ $1,800 18d
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May? SELL No 26¢ $1,021 25d
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May? BUY No 60¢ $2,571 28d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May? BUY No 71¢ $10,116 29d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? BUY No 79¢ $10,083 31d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May? BUY No 72¢ $3,944 32d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? BUY No 80¢ $10,081 39d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? BUY No 78¢ $10,089 41d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? BUY No 77¢ $10,084 41d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April? BUY No 67¢ $50,000 68d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April? BUY No 51¢ $5,000 68d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April? BUY No 59¢ $5,000 69d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in April? BUY Yes 53¢ $100 70d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in March? BUY No 59¢ $10,000 87d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of March? BUY No 61¢ $1,000 95d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of March? BUY No 59¢ $1,000 95d
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? BUY Yes 71¢ $1,500 100d
Will Reza Pahlavi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? BUY Yes 4¢ $100 102d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-22.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 8 -30.4% -37.0% 50% 50% +11.5%
≤90d 21 -41.9% -47.4% 38% 38% +26.9%
all 69 -14.7% -22.8% 38% 35% +23.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -22.8% 35% +23.9%
10% ← realistic here -30.2% 30% +12.0%
15% -37.0% 23% +1.2%
20% -43.1% 16% -8.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $41,937.21 · official $41,937.21 (match) · 160 history records