Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T21:26:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
1C 0x1cd2…c304 weather 31 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
COPY-WORTHYcopy this weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$1,191 (+83%) realized +$1,171 · open +$20
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +155% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +96% what you keep after slip
Net edge+96%after slip
Net WR69%break-even
Win rate72%21W / 8L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$46per market
Trades / day34.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$43now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$1,206
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +69%
net ROI/market (all)+130.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 +155.1% +130.8% 72% 69% +67.6%
≤30d 29 +155.1% +130.8% 72% 69% +67.6%
≤90d 29 +155.1% +130.8% 72% 69% +67.6%
all 29 +155.1% +130.8% 72% 69% +67.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover34.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +130.8% 69% +67.6%
10% ← realistic here +108.7% 66% +51.6%
15% +88.5% 41% +36.9%
20% +70.1% 34% +23.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 51% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +85% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +155% · $-wt +85% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late +291% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
4.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$57 vs −$1 · ×62.5 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×164.06 per $1 lost it wins $164.06
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$43
Realized+$1,171
Unrealized+$20
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses21 / 8
Open positions2
Markets (closed)29 / 31
History coverage6d
Avg bet$46
Trades / day34.4
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on June 23? Yes 53¢ 98¢ $23 $43 +$20 (+86%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 22? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-91%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on Jun Jun 22 $16 +$6 +38%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 22? Jun 22 $81 +$18 +23%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 22 $10 +$91 +935%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 23? Jun 22 $151 +$17 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 22? Jun 22 $12 $0 -3%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 22? Jun 22 $3 −$1 -28%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 20? Jun 21 $20 +$103 +529%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 20? Jun 20 $1 +$11 +996%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 20 $3 +$1 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 19? Jun 19 $90 +$108 +121%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on June 19? Jun 19 $2 +$21 +1331%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 17? Jun 18 $71 +$17 +24%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 18 $152 +$435 +287%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 17? Jun 17 $193 +$85 +44%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on June 17? Jun 17 $30 +$6 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 17? Jun 17 $12 +$16 +131%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 17? Jun 17 $16 +$6 +35%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on June 17? Jun 17 $8 −$2 -28%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 17? Jun 17 $133 +$39 +29%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 17? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 60-61°F on June 17? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on June 17? Jun 17 $5 −$2 -38%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 17? Jun 17 $16 −$1 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on June 17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -62%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 17? Jun 17 $3 +$1 +30%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 17 $259 +$175 +67%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 17? Jun 16 $75 +$5 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 72-73°F on June 16? Jun 16 $25 +$15 +60%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 78-79°F on June 16? Jun 16 $14 +$16 +108%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on Jun SELL No 12¢ $10 36m
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on Jun SELL No 20¢ $12 58m
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on Jun BUY No 10¢ $16 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 22? SELL Yes 38¢ $34 2h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 22? SELL Yes 41¢ $60 2h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 22? SELL Yes 44¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 22? SELL Yes 44¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 22? SELL Yes 44¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 22? SELL Yes 44¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 22? SELL Yes 44¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 22? SELL Yes 44¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Ju SELL Yes 75¢ $24 2h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 22? BUY Yes 31¢ $81 3h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Ju SELL Yes 66¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Ju SELL Yes 36¢ $19 3h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 23? SELL No 100¢ $110 3h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Ju SELL Yes 50¢ $2 3h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 22? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 22? SELL No 29¢ $12 3h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 23? BUY No 81¢ $90 3h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 22? BUY No 29¢ $12 4h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 22? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 4h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on June 23? BUY Yes 53¢ $23 4h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 23? SELL No 56¢ $38 5h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 23? SELL No 67¢ $7 5h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 23? SELL No 67¢ $13 5h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Ju SELL Yes 51¢ $49 5h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 23? BUY No 50¢ $26 6h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 23? BUY No 68¢ $35 6h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 22? SELL No 16¢ $2 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $42.66 · official $42.66 (match) · 225 history records