Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T10:22:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
1C 0x1cd5…1406 weather 54 markets active 1h ago coverage 224d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$11 (+1%) realized +$12 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate90%46W / 5L
Drawdown27%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$129now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$2
14 days+$4
30 days+$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 82% +$7
politics 11% +$3
other 7% +$1
world 0% +$1
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +0.5% -9.1% 100% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 30 -0.0% -9.5% 93% 7% -9.0%
≤90d 39 -6.1% -15.1% 87% 10% -9.1%
all 51 +0.2% -9.3% 90% 20% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 20% -8.8%
10% -18.0% 8% -17.5%
15% -25.9% 8% -25.5%
20% -33.2% 4% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
78% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×3.9 per $1 lost it wins $3.9
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

224d coverage
Net worth$129
Realized+$12
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)90%
Wins / losses46 / 5
Open positions3
Markets (closed)51 / 54
History coverage224d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown27%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 51 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 28? No 100¢ 99¢ $120 $120 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-0%)
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 26¢ 18¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-33%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on June 28? Jun 28 $100 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C or below on June 27? Jun 27 $8 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 26? Jun 26 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 25? Jun 25 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C or below on June 24? Jun 24 $127 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C or below on June 23? Jun 23 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C or below on June 21? Jun 21 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 20? Jun 20 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 19? Jun 19 $16 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C or below on June 18? Jun 18 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 18? Jun 18 $10 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C or below on June 17? Jun 17 $15 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 16? Jun 16 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C or higher on June 15? Jun 15 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 14? Jun 14 $115 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 11? Jun 11 $14 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 29°C on June 10? Jun 10 $10 $0 +3%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $100 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 9? Jun 09 $10 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 8? Jun 08 $1 $0 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 7? Jun 07 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 29°C on June 6? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -65%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 26°C on June 5? Jun 05 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 3? Jun 03 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 3? Jun 03 $10 +$2 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 1? Jun 02 $12 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on May 31? Jun 01 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on May 29? May 30 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on May 28? May 29 $10 $0 +1%
Will María Jesús Montero be the next President of Andalusia following May 26 $10 $0 +2%
Will VOX (VOX) win the Andalusia regional election? May 18 $11 $0 +1%
Will Partido Socialista Obrero Español de Andalucía (PSOE-A) win the A May 18 $99 +$1 +1%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-12-10? Apr 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by January 31? Apr 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? Apr 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Carlos Álvarez win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 14 $8 +$1 +18%
US forces enter Iran by December 31? Apr 06 $1 $0 +40%
Will Partido Socialista Obrero Español (PSOE) win the 2026 Castilla y Mar 16 $9 $0 +6%
Will Sanae Takaichi be the Prime Minister of Japan as a result of the Feb 20 $9 $0 +0%
Will Partido Popular (PP) win the 2026 Aragon Regional Election? Feb 09 $8 $0 +3%
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026? Jan 13 $1 $0 +14%
US x Venezuela military engagement by March 31, 2026? Jan 03 $2 +$1 +73%
Spain snap election called in 2025? Jan 01 $6 $0 +1%
Will Partido Socialista Obrero Español (PSOE) win the 2025 Extremadura Dec 22 $4 $0 +3%
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026? Dec 17 $1 $0 +6%
Will LLA hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the Dec 03 $1 $0 +22%
Will Elon Musk change his X profile picture by December 31? Dec 01 $1 $0 +43%
Will anyone vote "No" to releasing the Epstein files? Nov 19 $1 +$1 +61%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 30? BUY No 100¢ $9 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 28? BUY No 100¢ $100 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on June 28? SELL No 100¢ $101 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 28? BUY No 99¢ $20 24h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on June 28? BUY No 99¢ $100 2d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C or below on June 27? BUY No 98¢ $8 3d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 26? BUY No 99¢ $20 3d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 25? BUY No 100¢ $100 3d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C or below on June 24? BUY No 100¢ $100 4d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C or below on June 24? BUY No 99¢ $27 6d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C or below on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $100 7d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C or below on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $10 8d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $100 9d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 19? BUY No 94¢ $16 10d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C or below on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $100 11d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 18? BUY No 97¢ $10 12d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C or below on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $15 12d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $100 13d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $100 14d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C or higher on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $10 15d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $15 16d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 29°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $100 17d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 12? BUY No 99¢ $10 18d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $100 18d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 11? BUY No 98¢ $10 18d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 9? SELL No 100¢ $10 18d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 11? BUY No 98¢ $4 19d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 29°C on June 10? BUY No 97¢ $10 20d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 8? BUY No 87¢ $1 21d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 9? BUY No 96¢ $10 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $129.26 · official $129.26 (match) · 123 history records