Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:32:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1C 0x1cd7…4a99 other 8 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$167 (-35%) realized −$167 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -51% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -59% what you keep after slip
Net edge-59%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%2W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$60per market
Trades / day8.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit38%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 73% −$125
world 21% −$49
sports 7% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-55.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -51.1% -55.8% 25% 25% -46.7%
≤30d 8 -51.1% -55.8% 25% 25% -46.7%
≤90d 8 -51.1% -55.8% 25% 25% -46.7%
all 8 -51.1% -55.8% 25% 25% -46.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -55.8% 25% -46.7%
10% -60.0% 25% -51.8%
15% -63.9% 25% -56.5%
20% -67.4% 0% -60.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 86% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -41% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -51% · $-wt -41% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$34 vs −$41 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.28 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$167
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses2 / 6
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)8 / 8
History coverage2d
Avg bet$60
Trades / day8.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit38%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 8 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $39 −$2 -4%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $20 +$10 +48%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $86 −$85 -99%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $127 +$59 +46%
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 16 $12 −$12 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $99 −$49 -50%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $48 −$47 -99%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $50 −$50 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 57¢ $38 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $39 1h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $30 1h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 66¢ $20 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 49¢ $10 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 65¢ $10 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $65 3h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 99¢ $185 23h
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina SELL Cameron Norrie 0¢ $0 25h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $127 26h
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Cameron Norrie 16¢ $2 26h
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Cameron Norrie 30¢ $10 26h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $50 44h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 65¢ $48 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 54¢ $48 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $49 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $50 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 17 history records