Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T17:27:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
1C 0x1cd8…2011 sports 7 markets active 2h ago coverage 5d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$14 (+25%) realized +$14 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +30% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +18% what you keep after slip
Net edge+18%after slip
Net WR80%break-even
Win rate80%4W / 1L
Drawdown37%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 71% +$9
other 27% +$5
economics 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +80%
net ROI/market (all)+18.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +30.5% +18.1% 80% 80% +14.9%
≤30d 5 +30.5% +18.1% 80% 80% +14.9%
≤90d 5 +30.5% +18.1% 80% 80% +14.9%
all 5 +30.5% +18.1% 80% 80% +14.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +18.1% 80% +14.9%
10% +6.8% 60% +3.9%
15% -3.5% 60% -6.1%
20% -13.0% 20% -15.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 66% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +27% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +31% · $-wt +27% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$5 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×3.68 per $1 lost it wins $3.68
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized+$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses4 / 1
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)5 / 7
History coverage5d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown37%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+10%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $20 +$2 +11%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $5 +$8 +158%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Czechia O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $10 +$4 +42%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $10 +$4 +42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes 0¢ $1 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 90¢ $20 23h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 38¢ $5 2d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 56¢ $5 2d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Czechia O/U 0.5 BUY Over 70¢ $10 4d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $10 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.98 · official $5.98 (match) · 12 history records